National Center for Atmospheric Research Coordinated climate change experiments to be assessed as part of the IPCC AR5 Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado

Decadal prediction (2005-2030) 2. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond) Coordinated climate change experiments (formulated by WGCM and AIMES) to be run for assessment in IPCC AR5 Two classes of models to address two time frames and two sets of science questions: Decadal prediction (2005-2030) higher resolution (~50 km), no carbon cycle, some chemistry and aerosols, single scenario, science question: e.g. regional extremes 2. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond) intermediate resolution (~200 km), carbon cycle, specified/ simple chemistry and aerosols, new mitigation scenarios: “representative concentration pathways” (RCPs) science question: e.g. feedbacks (Meehl and Hibbard, 2007; Hibbard et al., 2007)

Improved SE USA rainfall. Developmental version of CCSM3.5 (last 20 years of 20th century) 1995 – 1999 average. Improved SE USA rainfall.

Need higher resolution to simulate extreme precipitation events Hi-CGCM = T106 (~100 km) Mid-CGDM = T42 (~240 km) (Kimoto et al., 2005)

IPCC AR4 Fig. 10.29 Greater uncertainty towards higher values due in part to uncertainty in the size and nature of the carbon cycle feedback

Expt #1: Diagnose climate and carbon cycle feedbacks CO2 fluxes saved CO2 seen by carbon cycle and atmosphere Temperature Compatible Emissions Schematic of Experiment #1. The carbon cycle sees increasing CO2 concentrations and changes in temperature. The land and ocean CO2 fluxes are saved to derive emissions by WG3 scientists. The land and ocean CO2 fluxes are NOT radiatively interactive with the atmosphere. emissions = CO2 flux + CO2 concentrations

Expt #2: Carbon cycle response with no climate change Climate change (AOGCM or ESM) Carbon cycle and compatible emissions (ESM or offline carbon cycle model) CO2 from experiment #1 seen by carbon cycle Constant CO2 seen by atmosphere CO2 fluxes saved T~ 0 Temperature Schematic of Experiment #2. The carbon cycle (land and ocean) sees CO2 concentrations from Experiment #1. Atmospheric CO2 is constant for the radiation calculation so there is little temperature change. Land and ocean CO2 fluxes are saved to derive emissions by IPCC Working Group 3. The land and ocean CO2 fluxes are NOT radiatively interactive with the atmosphere. #1 #2 #2 - #1 = effect of climate feedbacks on compatible emissions Emissions

Expt #3: Fully coupled ESM climate change projection Use emissions from RCP scenario, calculate fully coupled climate system response, compare temperature change to experiment 1 to determine size of carbon cycle feedback in terms of climate change CO2 fluxes CO2 seen by carbon cycle and atmosphere Temperature Schematic of Experiment #1. The carbon cycle sees increasing CO2 concentrations and changes in temperature. The land and ocean CO2 fluxes are saved to derive emissions by WG3 scientists. The land and ocean CO2 fluxes are NOT radiatively interactive with the atmosphere.

CCWG recommendations: 0.5 degree AOGCM version for decadal prediction experiments 2 x 2.5 degree ESM for long term experiments

Next: Mitigation/adaptation New mitigation scenarios run with earth system models will have implicit policy actions to target future levels of climate change But we can only mitigate part of the problem, and we will have to adapt to the remaining climate change The challenge: use climate models to quantify time-evolving regional climate changes to which human societies will have to adapt

KAKUSHIN: Global Warming Experiment on the Earth Simulator (MRI; Kanada et al) Prediction of ocean and atmosphere by AOGCM Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM Time slice experiments 20km-AGCM 270km-AOGCM Regional Climate Model 5km-NHM 1km-NHM A A SST AGCM SST B.C. SST 25 years O 21st century CGCM SST difference: Future - Present 200-50km-OGCM 25 years Nested in the 20km-AGCM 25 years From June to Oct. for each climate. Near future Present climate SST yr 2075-2099 1979-2003 11

SP550 SP1000 Permissible Emission = (CO2 in air) solid: Coupled run + Ocean/Land Uptake “coupled” = climate and carbon cycle respond to increasing concentrations “uncoupled” = only carbon cycle responds (climate doesn’t see increasing concentrations) SP550 PgC/year SP1000 dashed： Uncoupled run solid: Coupled run Green: Fossil carbon emission (reality) Stabilization at SP550 requires a cumulative 24% reduction of permissible emissions due to positive carbon cycle feedback (23% for SP1000) MIROC integrated earth system model (Kawamiya et al.)