Revisiting the Limits to Growth Thesis Thirty Years Later Presentation to: Imperial College 11 November 2004 Dennis Meadows LATAILLEDE@AOL.COM

Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian Presentation 2000

Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian Presentation

Our Conclusion in 1972 “If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to (physical) growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.”

What Must Stop Growing? Energy & Materials Flow Resources Capital Wastes Flow = f Population x Quality of Life x    Flow of E&M    Person Quality of Life

Causes of Growth in Population and Industry

Assumptions Inherent in Policies of the Industrialized Nations It is ethically acceptable to use technology in altering mortality (except through abortions) but unacceptable to alter fertility. Rising wealth will lower fertility and thereby stabilize population at sustainable levels. Efforts to stimulate industrial growth are the best way to make the poor wealthier, and this requires globalization of the economy. The potential for indefinite technological advance makes unnecessary even on a finite planet any concern for limits on material or energy consumption.

Natural Resources The earth's natural resources are finite, which means that if we use them continuously, we will eventually exhaust them. This basic observation is undeniable. But another way of looking at the issue is far more relevant for assessing social welfare. Our exhaustible and unreproducible natural resources, if measured in terms of their prospective contribution to human welfare, can actually increase year after year, perhaps never coming anywhere near exhaustion. How can this be? The answer lies in the fact that the effective stocks of natural resources are continually expanded by the same technological developments that have fueled the extraordinary growth in living standards since the industrial revolution. William J. Baumol and Sue Anne Batey Blackman

World Population

Population Growth Births & Deaths per 1000 per Year Population in Billions Births & Deaths per 1000 per Year Year

Total Population Added Millions of People Added per Year Year

Industrial Production Year

CO2 Concentration

Index of World Metals Use

The Physical Limits to Growth Energy & Materials Flow Resources Capital Wastes

Waste Fraction

Cost of Emission Reductions

+ Capital Flows Manufactured Consumer Goods Material Standard Resource Resources & Energy Industrial Capital Output Agricultural Capital Food & Fiber + Service Capital Health & Education Investment in Industry

2004 Projection for 1900 - 2100 Pollution Population Industrial Output Food Resources

Our Conclusion in 2004 Since 1972 there have not been any significant changes in the policies that drive growth in population and industrial production. Now the use of resources and generation of pollution are above sustainable levels. In 1972 the challenge was to slow down; now the challenge is to get back down. Decline is still the most probable future, and now it is much more likely - but not inevitable. But thirty years have been lost, and the period of declining growth - chosen by us or enforced by the planet - is thus much closer.

Does This Seem Reasonable? The 1970 World3 projections for 2000 were accurate. Now the book comes with a CD you can use to examine our scenarios. But proof does not lie in the model; confidence must come from observing the real system and actual events. Recent scientific studies, and the headlines in the daily newspaper provide more and more support for our original conclusions.

Some Indicators of Overshoot Deterioration in renewable resources - surface and ground water, forests, fisheries, agricultural land. Rising levels of pollution. Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor by military and industry to secure, process, and defend resources. Investment in human resources (education, shelter, health care) postponed in order to provide immediate consumption and security demands. Rising debt; eroding goals for health and environment. Growing instability in natural ecosystems. Growing gap between rich and poor - between the powerful and the weak. Meadows, et. al. pp 176-177.

One Index of Overshoot - the Global Ecological Footprint Number of Earths Required Year

Scientists & Overshoot Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about. World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity signed by more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries, 1992.

Insurance Firms & Overshoot

National Development & Overshoot Fifty-four nations, 30 percent of the 178 countries for which data were available in 2003, experienced negative average annual percent growth in their per capita gross domestic product for more than a decade during the period from 1990 to 2001.

Skeptics & Overshoot Twenty years ago some spoke of limits to growth. But today we now know that growth is the engine of change. Growth is the friend of the environment. President George Bush, 1992 This is my long-term forecast in brief: The material conditions in life will continue to get better for most people in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Julian Simon, 1997 In 1972, the Club of Rome published “Limits to Growth” questioning the sustainability of economic and population growth. …None of these developments has even begun to occur.. So the Club of Rome was wrong. ExxonMobile in WSJ, 2002 If Europe’s economies do not succeed in returning to the path of growth, these (many negative) consequences will even be exacerbated. Alpbach Forum, September 2004

Scarcity and Growth - 1963 There is, however, another indicator of the scarcity of a resource that is more reliable: its price. If the demand for a resource is not falling, and if its price is not distorted by interferences such as government intervention or international cartels, then the resource's price will rise as its remaining quantity declines. So any price rises can be interpreted as a signal that the resource is getting scarcer. One group of researchers (Barnett and Morse) found that the real cost (price) of extraction for a sample of thirteen minerals had declined for all but two (lead and zinc) between 1870 and 1956. More recently, Baumol et al. calculated the price of fifteen resources for the period 1900 to 1986 and showed that until the "energy crises" of the seventies, there was a negligible upward trend in the real (inflation-adjusted) prices of coal and natural gas, and virtually no increase in the price of crude oil.

US Oil Production Peaked in 1970 The US owns about 2% of the globe’s oil reserves, pumps about 9% of the annual production, and accounts for about 25% of the annual global consumption. In September, ‘04 US monthly oil production was the lowest in 55 years.

Global Oil Production will Probably Peak before 2020 Last year $8 billion invested in exploration by major oil companies discovered reserves with a present value of about $4 billion.

One Pattern for Sustainable Development

W3 Nonrenewable Resources Remaining in SD Sustainable Development Reference Scenario Reductions in Use: 2020 - 10% 2040 - 50% 2060 - 70% 2100 - 85%

W3 Persistent Pollution in SD Reference Scenario Sustainable Development Reductions in Emissions: 2020 - 10% 2040 - 50% 2060 - 75% 2100 - 95%

Examples of Technology Advance Wind Energy Production Cost Photovoltaic Systems Capital Cost

Our Thoughts in 2004 about SD “Sustainable Development” is no longer a useful organizing concept for understanding global policy priorities - now we need survivable development. This is going to be a century of declining flows; if we are lucky, foresighted, and deliberate, it can be traversed without massive conflict and further damage to the globe’s natural systems. The technologies are available or can be quickly developed to get us back down below the long-term carrying capacity, if there is political will. Two key leverage points are drastic increases in energy efficiency and substitution of distributed, renewable resources for centralized fossil fuel facilities. These would lower greenhouse emissions, reduce the gap between rich and poor, force development of new governance philosophies, increase the resilience of the economy, and shift the foundations of military power.

The Challenge of Man’s Future Within a period of time which is very short compared with the total span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be exhausted. This loss will make man completely dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and solar energy for driving his machines. There are no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society will be able to make the change smoothly. But it is a transition that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human species. .. if machine civilization should, because of some catastrophe, stop functioning, it will probably never again come into existence. Harrison Brown, 1954, p.222

What Can we Do? Gather and publish data on the true, full costs of expanding population and economy. Pass laws and implement administrative measures that promote total welfare for those who are here. Experiment, eg. local currencies. Tax material and energy use and use the proceeds to promote drastic efficiency improvements, recycling technologies, and renewable energy sources. Measure and reduce waste flows - eg. eco industrial parks. Set goals for equity. Create a non-partisan council responsible for determining and announcing the long-term consequences of current actions. Help citizens acquire new perspectives. Tools <-> Action Join the community of cities against climate change.

Traditional Concern was Resources As more and more areas become industrialized, and as the population of the earth increase still further, ever increasing demands will be placed upon mineral resources. All high-grade ores will eventually disappear, and man will be forced to extract the raw materials for his industry from the leanest of substances.. He need not be deprived of the elements from which he fabricates his tools and possesses… But as time goes by, everything he does will be more costly in terms of energy, and human affairs will necessarily become more highly organized in order to carry out the increasingly complex tasks. The Challenge of Man’s Future, Harrison Brown, 1954, pp. 216-219

Reserve Lifetimes in Limits to Growth Table 4: Nonrenewable Resources - Petroleum Known Global Reserves: 455 x 109 bbls (US Bureau of Mines) Static Index: 31 years Static Index with 5 Times Known Reserves: 155 Average Projected Annual Growth Rate (%): 3.9 Exponential Index: 20 years Exponential Index with 5 Times Known Reserves: 50 Limits to Growth, p. 58 Of course the actual nonrenewable resource availability in the next few decades will be determined by factors much more complicated than can be expressed by either index. p. 63