High Shear Low CAPE Severe Wx: March 4-5, 2008

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Presentation transcript:

High Shear Low CAPE Severe Wx: March 4-5, 2008 278 total tornado/wind reports

Tornado and Wind Events Examined 7 tornadoes (8 counties) 2123Z/4th-0150Z/5th 10 “sig” wind events (22 reports) 2305Z/4th-0525Z/5th

Environmental Conditions 300 mb

Environmental Conditions 850 mb

Environmental Conditions GSO

Environmental Conditions 0-6 km shear ~60 kts 0-1 km shear ~45 kts

NWS Performance - Tornado Warnings: Events: 7 Total 4 Fully warned 1 Partially warned 2 Unwarned 30 Issued 5 Verified 25 Not verified Scores: Lead time (min): 2012-2014 GPRA:72/70/13 POD - 0.679 vs. GPRA - 0.67 FAR - 0.833 vs. GPRA - 0.74 CSI - 0.154 Mean - 5.86 vs. GPRA - 11 Initial - 4.83

Highlights Tornado occurrences were associated with mini-supercells, most occurred earlier in the event and in close proximity to a preceding diabatically-induced frontal zone. Damaging wind events were mostly associated with QLCS/ line segments, though a couple were mini-supercell/RFD-related. A broad region of SHERB encompassed entire region of TOR/Wind reports, and local maxima of 1.25-1.5 were often located INVOF tornado occurrences. SigTor values typically between 1-2.

False Alarms Examined RAH.TO.W.0006.2008 Begin Time:03/05/2008 01:00 Z - End Time:03/05/2008 01:45 Z This storm was a mini-supercell located in central Granville County at the tail end of a broken convective line. The cell appeared to originally be a part of the line, but by warning issuance, the supercell had become separated from the line as a weak echo slot intruded upon the downwind side of the supercell.

False Alarms Examined RNK.TO.W.0003.2008 Begin Time:03/05/2008 01:22 Z - End Time:03/05/2008 01:45 Z The storm which prompted this warning was a line segment embedded within regions of generally stratiform precipitation ahead of a developing QLCS.

False Alarms Examined AKQ.TO.W.0002.2008 Begin Time:03/05/2008 01:57 Z - End Time:03/05/2008 02:30 Z The storm prompting this warning was a mini-supercell within a broad area of stratiform precipitation and embedded convection.

False Alarms Examined MHX.TO.W.0007.2008 Begin Time:03/05/2008 06:12 Z - End Time:03/05/2008 06:45 Z This storm was a mini-supercell on the northern end of a QLCS which moved through far eastern NC during the early morning of March 5, 2008.