Estimating deepsea, shortsea and transhipment volumes A data model for container traffic through the European North Range ports Sönke Maatsch, ISL

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes Content Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic – ISL STM Determining the hinterland distribution Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Future development of the model 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

(transport statistics) 1. Data sources A) Transport statistics NR ports’ modal split transport statistics Survey (B/Ls) Survey (transport statistics) NR ports’ seaborne traffic Survey B) Trade statistics A B Trade by origin/destination (e.g. UN, national statistics) 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic extra-European container traffic (→ EITM) intra-European container traffic ISL Shortsea Shipping Survey: survey among the most important shortsea operators main question: transhipment shares for each relation aim: estimating shortsea-land and transhipment traffic per relation (port-to-port or port-to-country level) 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005) extra-European O/D intra-European O/D deepsea-transhipment shortsea transhipment shortsea-land sea deepsea-land: 15.8 mill TEU transhipment: 10.5 mill TEU shortsea-land: 4.7 mill TEU port shortsea-transh.: 0.1 mill TEU land total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU ? 21.03.2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

3. Determining the hinterland distribution Modal split and hinterland distribution Modal split statistics from the ports: distribution of hinterland traffic by modes for some ports: modal split by hinterland regions Transport statistics: distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for barge and rail truck traffic: not available or only available for transport companies registered in the respective country Hinterland survey: distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for truck modal splits per region expert interviews / plausibility checks 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

3. Determining the hinterland distribution Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005) extra-European O/D intra-European O/D deepsea-transhipment shortsea transhipment shortsea-land sea deepsea-land: 15.8 mill TEU transhipment: 10.5 mill TEU shortsea-land: 4.7 mill TEU port shortsea-transh.: 0.1 mill TEU land total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU ? 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes Content Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic – ISL STM Determining the hinterland distribution Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Future development of the model 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

4. Linking trade and transport data Major challenges: from value to volume (tonnes) from tonnes to laden containers inclusion of empties estimation of transport chains first vs. final destination (distribution centres) Tools used for the North European Container Traffic Model: Global Insight World Trade Service (WTS) for a. and b. Imbalance analyses for c. Global Insight European Inland Transportation Model (EITM) and ISL Shortsea Traffic Model (STM) for d. Hinterland survey for d. and e. 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

4. Linking trade and transport data Estimation of transport chains e.g. imports from North East Asia to Poland from WTS: 150.000 laden TEU 2 40 Transhipment Barge 25 Truck* 5 Rail 1 30 70 Hamburg Rotterdam Bremen/Bhv. 20 Antwerp 150 1 Split by ports based on their market share on the respective relation and in hinterland regions 2 Split by mode based on preceding estimations for each port * Including containers transported to DCs near Hamburg and then on to Poland. 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

4. Linking trade and transport data Imbalance analysis for empty containers Basis for estimation: difference between export and import TEUs per hinterland region difference between export and import TEUs per maritime relation Adjustments: differences between port of discharge and port of loading of containers equalisations between certain maritime trade routes  Result: estimated transport chains for laden and empty containers 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

4. Linking trade and transport data Applications Market analyses market shares of ports in hinterland regions identification of potential new markets for ports modal split analyses Improved port traffic forecasting estimated transport chains allow differentiated forecasts impact of specific economic scenarios on the structure of a port’s cargo traffic can be directly calculated

5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Structure of cargo traffic for each North Range port ... market share per segment Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Market shares by hinterland regions and modal split (ex.: Hamburg) Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes 6. Planned developments further projects for North Range ports to improve robustness building time series expansion of the scope to the whole continental Europe (i.e. including Mediterranean) large-scale survey among importing and exporting companies in continental Europe standardizing the interface to Global Insight’s World Trade Service, thus permitting regularly updated port forecasts 21/03/2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

Thank you for your attention! Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Sönke Maatsch Economist Maritime Economics and Transport Universitätsallee GW1 Block A 28359 Bremen Germany Fax +49/4 21/2 20 96-77 www.isl.org Tel. +49/4 21/2 20 96-73 maatsch@isl.org 21.03.2017 Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes