Creating a future that works for youth Associate Professor Hernan Cuervo hicuervo@unimelb.edu.au Youth Research Centre The University of Melbourne Web: https://education.unimelb.edu.au/yrc Twitter: @YRCunimelb

Global youth transition regimes: the complex nexus between education and work

What future of work will children and youth experience? Perspectives range widely, from more enticing views of abundant leisure, to more disturbing visions of widespread unemployment and deepening social divisions. Total quantity of work: some jobs will disappear (factory towns), new jobs will be created (yet unknown) Distribution of work: routine tasks disappear (check-out supermarkets, warehouse, legal contracts); non-routine tasks continue (abstract cognitive tasks that demand higher education knowledge) Different reports see unlikely that Australia will lose 40% of workforce to automation. They believe our institutions and policies have been robust. Most importantly, what will change is how you spend your time at work.

The Life Patterns Program in 2018 Cohort 1 Generation X: born in early 1970s. Left secondary school in 1991 Sample size 2000 in 1996, now 273 Currently aged 44 - 45 Representative by gender, type of school attended, rural/urban Victoria Cohort 2 Generation Y: born in late 1980s. Left secondary school in 2006 Sample size 4000, now 535 Currently aged 29-30 Representative by gender, type of school attended. Over-sampled in rural VIC, ACT, TAS, NSW Team members: Lead CI Prof. J. Wyn, H. Cahill, D. Woodman, H. Cuervo, J. Chesters, J. Cook, J. Reade, S. Jackson & International Partner Prof. Carmen Leccardi.

Which of the following is likely for you in 5 years from now, by ‘very likely’, both cohorts in 1996 & 2011, age 22-23, (%)

How do you rate the following as goals to aim throughout your life How do you rate the following as goals to aim throughout your life? By “very high”, in 2006 (age 17-18) and 2015 (age 26), in %

Level of Education by 2017, age 28-29 (%)

Link between education and work & experience of job insecurity, in 2017, age 28, (%)

High “horizontal” job mobility

Working conditions - “Irregular shifts”: Q Working conditions - “Irregular shifts”: Q. Your work involves… (By “agree”). 2009 (age 20) to 2017 (age 28), in %

In the past few months, how healthy have you felt mentally In the past few months, how healthy have you felt mentally? Study-work patterns. By “very unhealthy” & “unhealthy”, in 2017, N=527, (%)

What does job insecurity do? A longitudinal view. Participants that were in insecure work (non-permanent) both in 2012 (age 23-24) & 2017 (age 28-29) were… More likely to only have a secondary school degree More likely to be ‘single’ or ‘in a relationship’ than in ‘de facto’ / ‘married’ More likely to have poor mental health (particularly women) More likely to report lower levels of wellbeing More likely to feel they cannot plan for the future These are the scarring effects of insecure work

86% - in 2009, age 20 95% - in 2011, age 22 92% - in 2013, age 24 How much importance would you give to the following in deciding on a job for the future? “Job is secure”, by ‘very important/important’, 2009 to 2017 86% - in 2009, age 20 95% - in 2011, age 22 92% - in 2013, age 24 95% - in 2015, age 26 93% - in 2017, age 28

The difficulty of planning a life (2017) Not being able to plan too far ahead is an awful way to live. Always worrying about some unexpected bill or emergency leaves you feeling like you will never get ahead. (Female, regional town, TAFE Cert. 3, Sales) Only having casual work available means that I can't plan for my future. I can't rely on my job being there in a year and as it is it makes me unwell. (Female, metro area, university bachelor degree, professional)

The impact of job insecurity Job insecurity is part and parcel of being employed, I can't foresee building a suitable life with a traditional middle class career. I see the employee lifestyle as no longer viable for success. (Male, metro area, secondary school degree, sales) Job insecurity has cost me my relationship. It is highly stressful as I am no financially secure. Jobs in my field are hard to come by and also stressful. It could take me a long time to find a permanent job and I may have to relocate. (Female, metro area, university Master degree, professional) Impacted the relationship with my husband and my mental health. The stress of raising two young children and paying a mortgage on one wage is a very stressful thought. (Female, regional city, advanced diploma, sales)

Looking back at hopes you had in school, how satisfied are you with the way things have turned out, by ‘very satisfied’, aged 25, (Cohort 1) 1999 & (Cohort 2) 2014, (in %) This slide shows that while the two generations have very similar values, the second cohort has learned to see some things differently. In particular, they have learned to be more flexible about how they might use their education, and are prepared to continue with education to achieve their goals. The are also less satisfied with the situation with the environment.

The three issues you consider are the most important in Australia today (2017, in %)

Effects Longer job search time and poorer quality jobs “Scarring” Loss of earning power Distrust of socio-economic and political systems Dissatisfaction with work Struggle to balance life and work Denial of the resources to build a life Low rates of marriage and fertility Increasing rates of mental health problems (anxiety disorders and depression)

Conclusion: A new adulthood Earlier engagement with ‘adult’ practices Increased investment and time in education Education is a key strategy for achieving security Transitions to work aged 25 Tertiary education a necessary but not sufficient tool to secure well-paid employment Increase in precarious work Even for the educated Job mobility “If you stay in one job for more than three years it looks bad” High value on secure, meaningful work, on personal relationships and on ethical practice

Thank you To learn more about Life Patterns project: https://education.unimelb.edu.au/yrc/projects