LFS user presentation: DG EMPL Magdalena Grzegorzewska, Filip Tanay DG EMPL, A4 29/06/2016 LAMAS

LFS data – use in DG EMPL Monitoring policies Analytical work Assessment tools DG EMPL wishes Methods, data Microdata Ad-hoc modules Seasonally adjusted main indicators Flow statistics Scores, regressions Ad-hoc modules: migration, retirement, youth, health and safety, self-employment, time working arrangement, reconciliation

Monitoring policies Europe 2020 and European Semester European Pillar of Social Rights Equal opportunities and access to the labour market Fair working conditions Adequate and sustainable social protection Youth employment - Youth Guarantee Long-term unemployment Migration and mobility New skills agenda for Europe New Start initiative on work-life balance Equal opportunities and access to the labour market Skills, education, life-long learning; Flexible and secure labour contracts; Secure professional transitions; Active support to employment; Gender equality and work-life balance; Equal opportunities Fair working conditions Conditions of employment; Wages; Health and safety at work, Social dialogue and involvement of workers Adequate and sustainable social protection Integrated social benefits and services; Health care and sickness benefits; Pensions; Unemployment benefits; Minimum income; Disability; Long-term care; Childcare; Housing; Access to essential services

Analytical work Regular publications Employment and Social Developments in Europe Labour Market and Wage Developments in Europe EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review Analytical webnotes (Labour market transitions, Measuring skills mismatch) Working papers EMCO/SPC/Commission reports Topical reports and analytical documents (for social partner consultations) Impact assessments and evaluations (occupational health and safety)

Assessment tools and indicators Europe 2020 indicators MIP´s alert mechanism AR, LUR, YUR - 3 year-change Scoreboard of key employment and social indicators UR, YUR, NEET, GDHI growth, AROP 18-64, S80/S20 Joint assessment Framework (JAF) 400 indicators (60% LFS) Employment Performance Monitor Social Protection Performance Monitor LUR, YURatio, NEET, ER55-64 Benchmarking employment and social policies JAF 400, 200 main, overall and subindicators 420 unique, 200 unique (60% LFS)

Joint Assessment Framework (JAF) Analytical tool for tracking progress and monitoring the Employment Guidelines under Europe 2020 11 policy areas Increase labour market participation Enhancing labour market functioning; combating segmentation Active labour market policies Adequate employment oriented social security systems Work-life balance Job creation Gender equality Improving skills and productivity; Lifelong learning Improving educational and training systems Wage setting mechanisms and labour costs Preventing poverty through inclusive labour markets, adequate and sustainable social protection and access to high quality, affordable and sustainable service Overall, subindicators and context indicators 400 indicators (60% LFS)

The Labour Market Integration of Refugees Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2016

Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*) Labour market outcomes Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*) Source: Eurostat

Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*) Labour market outcomes Low labour market performance compared to many other migrants (EU-25*) Source: Eurostat. *low reliability; **did not take part in 2014 AHM

Social outcomes Education As much as a fifth of existing refugees are highly educated, but many are also low educated 2014 A social outcome but also a driver Source: DG EMPL calculations based on EU-LFS 2014 module

Labour market outcomes Employment outcomes of refugees catch up with time, but it takes up to 20 years Source: Eurostat

Labour market outcomes Having intermediate language skills gives a big boost to employment chances And most importantly, there are indications that the language also helps unlock education gains and is a necessary condition of making good use of one's qualifications Source: Eurostat

1. Employment rate by category of migrants Ordinal logistic regression 1. Employment rate by category of migrants Employed in % of all people aged 15-64, 2014 ! ! additionally controlled for ….

Combatting and preventing long-term unemployment (LTU) Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2015

Three steps to go back to work Objective Support Member States to increase transitions from long term unemployment to employment 2. Individual assessment 1. Registration 3. Job Integration Agreement 12 - 18 months ***via a SINGLE POINT OF CONTACT***

What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? Chances to find a job decreased during the crisis… What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table) Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics. Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population reference group: 25-64 years old.

What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? …but fewer people moved to inactivity What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table) Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics. Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population reference group: 25-64 years old.

What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? …but considerable differences across Member States What is happening to the long-term unemployed one year after? Both due to older and younger: LTU is very different across Member States (look at A1 table) Source: DG EMPL elaborations based on EUROSTAT experimental EU-LFS flow statistics. Note: * EU-24 is EU-28 without Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal; population reference group: 25-64 years old.

Who are the LTU most at affected? Long-term unemployment did not impact all different groups of the EU-28 population equally but those worst off, the most LTU, before the crisis were those that suffered most during the crisis and to this day. Examining all of the different age, gender, country of birth and education groups together in terms of LTU stocks it is apparent that the crisis increased the risk of being LTU most in the part of the labour force that was already suffering from the highest levels of LTU

Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review Latest developments Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review

What are latest developments in the EU? LUR decreasing faster than short-term unemployment. But a problem

… finding jobs improves, separations decline The evolution of the job finding rate (a measure of the probability that an unemployed person finds a job within the next month) and of the job separation rate (a measure of the probability that an employed person becomes unemployed in the next month)

Suplementary indicators to unemployment, seasonally adjusted! There are other issues: discouragement, underemployment… Suplementary indicators to unemployment, seasonally adjusted! LUR decreasing faster than short-term unemployment. But a problem

Implementation of Youth Guarantee and operation of Youth Employment Initiative DE MT CZ AT NL EE DK UK LT LU HU LV SI PL BG IE SE EU28 RO EA19 FI FR SK BE CY PT IT HR ES EL

Key indicators for youth DE MT CZ AT NL EE DK UK LT LU HU LV SI PL BG IE SE EU28 RO EA19 FI FR SK BE CY PT IT HR ES EL

Recent improvements… for adults and youth Are there countries where young people do relatively better?

Who are NEETs?

Scoreboard of key employment and social indicators z-scores threshold -1 -0.5   0.5 1 lower than higher than Source: Eurostat, LFS. FR, ES break in series in 2014

Joint Assessment Framework

DG EMPL wishes Data for specific policies Migration – reasons for migration Care – obstacles to childcare, long-term care services, take-up of leaves Accidents at work Skills – data comparable with other surveys (AES, PIAAC) Robust ad-hoc modules Reliable and good quality data NEEDCARE, pay from work Longitudinal data - transitions for all Member States Seasonally adjusted data, variance estimates, breaks in series Consistency with other sources (National Accounts) More regularly collected data on obstacles to childcare (planned for 2018 ad-hoc module) Data on long-term care services (and possibly obstacles to access if possible) Data on the take-up of leave arrangements (including duration of leave taken)