Montana Employment Projections

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Presentation transcript:

Montana Employment Projections AMY WATSON Senior Economist MT Dept. of Labor and Industry awatson@mt.gov | 406-444-3245 Presented to the HWAC December 10th, 2018

What are Employment Projections? An estimate of future employment levels based on historical data and analyst insight. Produced over a 2-year and 10-year timeframe. By Industry, Occupation, and Region Every state is required to produce their own estimates based on methodology defined by BLS

0.7% long-term employment growth 3,900 jobs per year through 2027 Statewide Growth 0.7% long-term employment growth 3,900 jobs per year through 2027 Employment growth faster than labor force growth Unemployment falls to 3.4% by 2027

Regional Employment Growth The fastest employment growth is projected in the most populated regions. Source: MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Employment Growth by Industry Source: MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Healthcare Employment Growth Industry Historical Growth Rate 1990-2017 2017-2019 Annual Growth Rate 2019-2027 Annual Growth Rate Average Job Gain Per Year 2017-2019 Average Job Gain Per Year 2019-2027 Healthcare 2.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1,358 1,213 Accommodation & Food Services 2.2% 0.7% 1.0% 353 537 Construction 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 584 433 Professional 3.8% 1.6% 1.7% 343 399 Retail Trade 0.2% 0.5% 135 291 Total Employment 1.1% 3,579 3,929 Source: Historic data from QCEW with an estimate added for railroad employment. Total employment from LAUS. Projected data from the MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Healthcare Employment Growth 1.9% 2.4% 0.9% 2.0% Source: Historic data from QCEW with an estimate added for railroad employment. Total employment from LAUS. Projected data from the MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Healthcare Employment Growth 0.7% 2.2% 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% Source: MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Top 12 Healthcare Jobs Source: MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

Top 12 Non-Healthcare Jobs Source: MTDLI 2017-2027 Employment Forecasts.

lmi.mt.gov/Publications The full publication is available for download on our website under publications: lmi.mt.gov/Publications