Outlook for the U.S. November 3, 2016 WWEMA

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for the U.S. November 3, 2016 WWEMA Hank Fishkind Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817 Outlook for the U.S. November 3, 2016 WWEMA

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Yogi Berra observed, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. U.S. Forecast Summary 2016 – 2018 2.5% +/- 0.5% Growth is as good as it gets Strong gains in jobs and rising wages Low oil prices and low inflation Low interest rates even with the increases Monetary policy – the shift to normal rates Clinton expected to win election Largely status quo in economic and foreign policy More stalemate on policy and more drama Fiscal policy shifts to mildly stimulative Growth will accelerate a bit in 2nd half of 2016 and into 2017 and then slow a bit in 2018 as rates rise Main forecasts risk: (1) Election, (2) Geopolitical risks, (3) weaker global growth, and (4) effects of higher interest rates 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Low Growth Trajectory for Real GDP Unlikely to Change Fallout from Great Recession Increased regulation Lower risk tolerance Globalization Holds down prices Holds down wages Income Inequality Underestimate GDP Investment in Tech Consumption Social Media Current mix of monetary and fiscal Policies will yield +/- 2.5% Growth GDP 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Average 1963-2000 = 635 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Core averages 2.2% Year over Year in 2016 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Economic Policy Issues in a World of Structural Change Transformational forces Globalization/Trade Automation/Artificial Intelligence Migration Slow economic growth / low demand Distributional issues for those left behind / political & economic issues Debt and structural issues in the budget 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. Average Outlays Average Revenues 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Long Term Economic Growth % GDP = % Productivity + % Population 1.8% to 1.75% GDP 0.8% to 1.5% productivity 1% to 1.25% population Investment in human & physical capital Reform entitlements and healthcare Revise immigration policy 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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Fiscal Policy Assumptions Largely status quo Debt ceiling and budget approval Lots of drama but passage likely Too much political damage from failure 2013 shutdown damaged Republicans Sequester returns in FY 2018 but budget deal probably trumps sequester Stalemate on most issues except for: Infrastructure financing $275 billion Minimum wage increase Tax reform lite Lower corporate taxes Buffet Rule – floor on minimum tax rate 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. INTEREST RATES 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

GDP Growth (Percent growth SAAR) 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

State and Local Spending on Infrastructure $2014 M 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Government Spending on Water/Wastewater $2014 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Government Spending on Water/Wastewater $2014 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Spending on O&M Outpaces Capital Investments 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

State & Local Governments Make Most Investments 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Outlook for Spending on Water/Wastewater Systems Positive outlook near term State/local revenues improving Economic expansion likely to continue Interest rates remain very low and credit readily available for infrastructure projects Federal infrastructure spending to rise Long term outlook positive Lengthy history of rising real expenditures for water/wastewater projects U.S. public and private infrastructure needs substantial new investment 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Fishkind & Associates, Inc. The End 2/2/2019 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.