Global Ecology Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. In the lecture on Nutrient Supply & Cycling we discussed cycling of nutrients within ecosystems. Here we focus on global-scale cycles. Composite satellite image (“Blue Marble 2012”) from Wikimedia Commons

Humans (there are a LOT of us) have had a big influence! Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Ch. 23 (Conservation Biology) was also about human influences on the planet. As we’ve discussed, there a LOT of humans on the planet. Accordingly, humans have had a big influence on the planet, so today’s lecture about Global Ecology will focus largely on that anthropogenic influence. Image from Wikipedia “Tiger stadium (LSU)” page; accessed 4/20/18. Photo of a large crowd in Tiger Stadium from Wikimedia Commons

[Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Global Carbon Cycle [Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Boxes = major pools or reservoirs; petagrams (1 Pg = 1015 g) Arrows = fluxes or rates of movement; Pg/yr Orange arrows = anthropogenic fluxes Main pools = atmosphere, oceans, land surface (soils & veg.), rocks & sediments Terrestrial pool exchanges C with atmosphere mostly via photosynthesis & respiration (primarily from decomposition) Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.3

[Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Global Carbon Cycle [Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Boxes = major pools or reservoirs; petagrams (1 Pg = 1015 g) Arrows = fluxes or rates of movement; Pg/yr Orange arrows = anthropogenic fluxes Post-Industrial Revolution anthropogenic inputs have dramatically increased Anthropogenic C flux to atmosphere: ~90% burning of fossil fuels (non-renewable resource); ~10% land-use change Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.3

[Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Global Nitrogen Cycle [Atmosphere-derived nutrient] Boxes = major pools or reservoirs; teragrams (1 Tg = 1012 g) Arrows = fluxes or rates of movement; Tg/yr Orange arrows = anthropogenic fluxes Main pool = atmosphere (N2) C & N cycles are tightly coupled through photosynthesis & decomposition Human activity has altered the global N cycle even more than the global C cycle Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.7

Global Phosphorus Cycle [Rock-derived nutrient] Boxes = major pools or reservoirs; teragrams (1 Tg = 1012 g) Arrows = fluxes or rates of movement; Tg/yr Orange arrows = anthropogenic fluxes Main pools = terrestrial soils & marine sediments Mining (non-renewable resource) releases 4x more P than weathering of rock (apparently not shown) Eutrophication can result from anthropogenic oversupply of P or N (e.g., Gulf “Dead Zone”) Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.9

[Rock-derived nutrient] Global Sulfur Cycle [Rock-derived nutrient] Boxes = major pools or reservoirs; teragrams (1 Tg = 1012 g) Arrows = fluxes or rates of movement; Tg/yr Orange arrows = anthropogenic fluxes Main pools = rocks, sediments, ocean Anthropogenic emissions have quadrupled since the Industrial Revolution Atmospheric deposition is a cause of acid rain Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.10

Global Change Climate change – a directional shift of average weather across a region for a prolonged period of time E.g., Eocene temperature was 4 – 6 °C warmer than today Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Wikipedia “Geologic temperature record” page Epochs: Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene, Miocene, Pliocene, Pleistocene, Holocene, etc. Paleogene Period (see Lecture 23) extends from beginning of Paleocene through end of Miocene. Image from Wikimedia Commons 8

Global Change Climate change – a directional shift of average weather across a region for a prolonged period of time E.g., Eocene temperature was 4 – 6 °C warmer than today Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Notice the crocodilian and redwood trees in the artist’s interpretation of life on Ellesmere during the Eocene (based on good fossil evidence). Eocene on Ellesmere Island, far north Canada Modern day on Ellesmere Island, far north Canada Images from www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com 9

Global Change Climate change – a directional shift of average weather across a region for a prolonged period of time E.g., Eocene seas were 100 - 150 m higher than today Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Notice that Florida was completely submerged! Note that in James Hansen’s “Storms of my Grandchildren” sea level on a modern ice-free Earth would be ~75 m higher than it is currently (e.g., see pg. 250). I do not know why Eocene seas were higher than they would be in the modern day on an ice-free planet. Image from www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com 10

Global Change Climate change – a directional shift of average weather across a region for a prolonged period of time E.g., Milankovitch Cycles – Earth’s changing orbit influences temperature with ~41,000 & ~100,000 yr periodicities Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Wikipedia “Geologic temperature record” page Image from Wikimedia Commons 11

Global Change Climate change – a directional shift of average weather across a region for a prolonged period of time E.g., Pleistocene glacial and inter-glacial periods Then relative stability during pre-Industrial Revolution Holocene Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Wikipedia “Geologic temperature record” page Image from Wikimedia Commons 12

Do you recognize this curve? Global Change Do you recognize this curve? Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Image from NOAA

Do you recognize this curve? Global Change Do you recognize this curve? Keeling curve Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Image from NOAA

Global Change International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) est. 1988 by the United Nations; recipient of Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 Taking all the accumulated evidence into account, anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases are the principal causes of modern global warming; i.e., we are experiencing an anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse effect Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. See pg. 578 of textbook (Bowman, Hacker & Cain 2017 Ecology, 4th ed.) – “the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988… the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.” Wikipedia “Greenhouse gas” page Image from Wikimedia Commons 15

Global Change IPCC predictions are for [CO2] by 2100: 500 to 1000 ppm; Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. On this figure, temperatures and CO2 concentrations were estimated from ice cores through examination of isotopes (temp.) and CO2 concentration. Remember what we said about the Eocene (climate in northern Canada; sea level)? Notice the close match between greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere and Earth’s average temperate! IPCC predictions are for [CO2] by 2100: 500 to 1000 ppm; with concomitant global temperatures 1.1 to 6.4 °C higher Image from www.epa.gov 16

Global Change Earth’s avg. temp. = 14 °C (57 °F) Without the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect it would be about -18 °C (-0.4 °F) Greenhouse gases: H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, etc. Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Cf. Fig. 2.4 of textbook (Bowman, Hacker & Cain 2017 Ecology 4th ed.). Common greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons; e.g., see pg. 578 of textbook (Bowman, Hacker & Cain 2017 Ecology 4th ed.). Image from: www.grida.no

Global Change – Physical Consequences Feb. 17, 1993 E.g., global reduction in ice; ice that melts on land contributes to sea-level rise Feb. 21, 2000 Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Widespread retreat of montane glaciers, thinning of polar ice caps, thawing of permafrost… Photo of glacial retreat on Mount Kilimanjaro (Feb. 1993 to Feb. 2000) from Wikimedia Commons; Map of Africa from www.admin.uio.no

Global Change – Physical Consequences E.g., sea-level rise New Orleans New Orleans Breton Sound Breton Sound Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Image from: Image from: http://nola14.nytimes-institute.com/2014/05/27/coastal-restoration-plan-lacks-funds/

Global Change – Physical Consequences E.g., decreasing oceanic pH Tatoosh Island, Washington Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Dissolving carbon dioxide in sea water increases the H+ ion concentration and lowers pH; increasing H+ ion concentration dissolves transforms carbonate into bicarbonate. Note that there was a “spike in ocean acidification during the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) 55Ma” that was devastating to marine biodiversity (J. B. C. Jackson, 2010, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.). CO2 + H2O H2CO3 (carbonic acid) H+ + HCO3- (bicarbonate) 2 H+ + CO32- (carbonate) Photo from Wikimedia Commons; figs. from Wootton et al. (2008) PNAS

Global Change – Biotic Consequences E.g., decreasing oceanic pH causes decreases in biogenic calcium carbonate Mollusk shells Australia’s Great Barrier Reef corals Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Coral exoskeletons Photos of oyster, conch, and coral from Wikimedia Commons; Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.5

Global Change – Biotic Consequences Altered expression of traits (owing to phenotypic plasticity, e.g., phenology) Range shifts (especially upslope & to higher latitudes) Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Adaptation (to changing environments) Extinctions (when range shifts and adaptation fail to keep pace with changing environments) Range map and image of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) from Wikimedia Commons 22

Global Change – Public Opinion Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperature? Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Peter T. Doran & Maggie Kendall Zimmerman. 2009. Examining the scientific consensus on climate change. Eos 90:22-23. If it does not make sense to you to pay attention to what climate scientists think, consider the extent to which we pay attention to specialists in the area of interest for other specialized problems. For example, we tend to listen to medical researchers and practitioners when we contemplate the consequences of smoking tobacco on human health (does it make more sense to listen to the general public’s collective opinion more than to the medical profession’s collective opinion when considering whether or not to smoke tobacco?). In other words, don’t listen to Senator Jim Inhofe (R – Oklahoma), a.k.a., “Senator Snowball.” From Doran & Zimmerman (2009) Eos (formerly Transactions of the American Geophysical Union)

Has generally been effective! [Strong political will] Global Change Montreal Protocol (1987) Treaty to enact resolutions from the United Nations’ Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985) to “protect the [stratospheric] ozone layer [which somewhat shields the Earth from high-energy ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation] by taking precautionary measures to control equitably total global emissions of substances that deplete it [e.g., CFCs], with the ultimate objective of their elimination” Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. It is clear that unlike the Montreal Protocol (w.r.t. ozone depletion), the Kyoto Protocol (w.r.t. atmospheric greenhouse gas increases) has had relatively little effect (see pp. 108-114, Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2008, Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet)! It was easier to convince corporate industry to end use of CFCs etc. than it has been to reduce the use of fossil fuels! Has generally been effective! [Strong political will] Bowman, Hacker & Cain (2017), Fig. 25.23 24

Global Change Kyoto Protocol (1997) Legally binding treaty through 2012 (when ratified by states) intended to enact resolutions from the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” Green = signed & ratified (enacted into federal law) Red = signed, but not ratified Grey = non-signatory Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. The first commitment period lasted 2008 to 2012. The second commitment period, under the Doha Amendment continues until 2020. It is clear that unlike the Montreal Protocol (w.r.t. ozone depletion), the Kyoto Protocol (w.r.t. atmospheric greenhouse gas increases) has had relatively little effect (see pp. 108-114, Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2008, Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet)! It was easier to convince corporate industry to end use of CFCs etc. than it has been to reduce the use of fossil fuels! Wikipedia “Kyoto Protocol” page; accessed March 1, 2015. Was NOT effective! [Weak political will] Image from Wikipedia (see “Kyoto Protocol”) 25

Paris Climate Agreement (2015) Is not likely to be effective! Global Change Paris Climate Agreement (2015) The next phase legally binding treaty to begin in 2020 (when ratified by states) intended to enact resolutions from the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” Orange = signed & ratified (enacted into federal law) Dark Orange = signed & ratified collectively as European Union Green = Signed, but not yet ratified Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Wikipedia “Paris Agreement” page; accessed April 24, 2018. Is not likely to be effective! [Weak political will] Image from Wikipedia (see “Paris Agreement”) 26

Paris Climate Agreement (2015) Is not likely to be effective! Global Change Paris Climate Agreement (2015) The next phase legally binding treaty to begin in 2020 (when ratified by states) intended to enact resolutions from the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” Paris Climate Agreement ratified under Obama Administration, 2015 Trump Administration pledges to withdraw at earliest opportunity, Nov. 2020 Industrialized countries are not on track to meet goals X Please do not use the images in these PowerPoint slides without permission. Wikipedia “Paris Agreement” page; accessed April 24, 2018. Is not likely to be effective! [Weak political will] Image from Wikipedia (see “Paris Agreement”) 27