Interpretation of indicators in industry Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Outline 1.Overall trends 2.Analysis by branch 3.Effect of structural changes

Contents 1.Overall trends a.Energy consumption, value added and production index, ( ) selection of period of analysis b.Energy intensity of industry and manufacturing (annual variation by period) c.Breakdown of consumption by industrial branch ( ) (for the 5 main branches)

Trends in energy consumption and value added in industry: case of Chile Trends in energy consumption and value added (2000=100 ) Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile industry= manufacturing + mining + construction

Trends in energy intensity of industry: identification of homogeneous periods for analysis: case of Chile Energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile

Trends in energy intensity of industry: analysis by period : case of Chile Annual variation in energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining (%/year) Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile

: inflation control and economic development in Brazil : significant decrease (electricity crisis and rationing) : recovery period and new projects in industry : impacts of the global economic crisis) : large projects for steel, bauxite, alumina and pulp production Source: EPE Choice of period for analysis: case of Brazil Trends in energy intensity of manufacturing industry: analysis by period : case of Brazil Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile

Energy consumption of manufacturing by sub-sector in Brazil Increasing relative share of food industry: sugar, processed and frozen products; Decreasing share of primary metals and chemicals (less investments and more imports) 8 Source: BIEE EPE Breakdown of the energy consumption by industrial branch: case of Brazil

Outline 1.Main trends 2.Analysis by branch 3.Effect of structural changes

10 Objective: o Show trends in energy efficiency by focusing on main energy intensive products (cement, steel, paper, copper,etc..) o Show trends in energy intensities by sub-sector (textiles, chemicals, food,etc..). Content o Specific consumption of energy-intensive products (cement, steel, paper) o Energy intensity by branch (2000 and 2010); Content

Specific energy consumption of energy intensive products: case of Chile Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile Specific energy consumption (toe/ton) Copper is very intensive in Chile and its specific energy consumption is increasing due to less concentrated ores Using a double scale or showing each product separately enables to better see the trends by product

Specific energy consumption of steel in Brazil Decreasing specific energy consumption of steel 12 Source: EPE Source: BIEE/EPE

Decreasing specific energy consumption of cement until Source: BIEE/EPE Specific energy consumption of cement in Brazil

14 Medener Energy intensity by branch (unit koe per 2000) (Uruguay) Increases in the energy intensity of all branches in Uruguay Source: BIEE, MIEM/ DNE Trends in the energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Uruguay

Outline 1.Main trends 2.Analysis by branch 3.Effect of structural changes

16 Objectives: Analyze the effect of changes in industrial specialization on the energy intensity (role of structural effects), first at the manufacturing level and for industry as whole Content: o Change in industrial structure: breakdown of value added by branch (2000 and 2010); o Relative levels of energy intensity of the branches o Intensity at constant structure Content

Structural changes in manufacturing industry: case of Chile Value added structure by industrial branch in Chile Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile

18 Medener Energy intensity by branch (relative value: machinery=1) (Uruguay) Paper and non metallic minerals are 15 to 20 times more energy intensive than machinery in Uruguay Food, textile and chemicals very similar ~ 4 times more energy intensive than machinery Relative levels of energy intensity by branch

Calculation of an intensity at constant structure to measure the impact of structural changes in industry or manufacturing 19 To quantify the impact of structural changes on the energy intensity of manufacturing industry, the usual approach is to calculate a fictive energy intensity at constant structure, i.e. assuming that the structure did not change compared to a base year (e.g. 2000). This intensity at constant structure is calculated at year t with the sectoral intensities of year t and the value added structure of manufacturing (i.e. the share of each sub-sector i in the total value added of manufacturing of the base year 0): IEs = (VAi/VA)o * (Ei/VAi)t with : IEs : intensity at constant structure VAi: value added of sub-sector i; VA: total value added of manufacturing; Ei: energy consumption of sub-sector i; o :base year (e.g. 2000) and t: current year

Energy intensity of manufacturing: observed and at constant structure in Uruguay Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after 2007, strong impact Source: MIEM/DNE Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay effects of structural changes

Energy intensity of manufacturing Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after 2007, around 40% of the increase is due to structural changes (ie 6/16%) Source: MIEM/DNE Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay : summary by period 40%

Share of industry value added by branch Source: EPE Change in industry value added structure : structural changes : case of Brazil Decreasing share of chemicals and paper but increasing share of food and to a lesser extent of non metallic minerals and basis metals

Energy intensity by branch The branch primary metals has the highest energy intensity; it is 13 times more intensive than textiles, followed by paper and pulp ( factor 9 compared to textiles), food and non metallic minerals (factor 4) Source: EPE Energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Brazil

24 Structural changes towards less intensive branches contributed to limit around 50% of the intensity increase Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Brazil