Suite of models approach and uncertainty ranges Matúš Senaj OUTPUT GAP WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP 5 September 2018

Short introduction Estimates of Slovak OG Vintages relevant for fiscal compact available in July and December Time period starts in 2014

A suite of models approach Combines the information Different approaches: Simple arithmetic average - SK „Mid-Range“ estimate - IE Model weights

A comparison of Slovak OG estimated by different institutions Estimates of three institutions European Commission Ministry of Finance National Bank

A comparison of Slovak OG estimated using different models Three different models Hodrick-Prescott filter MVKF – multivariate Kalman filter PCA – principal component analysis

Robustness/stability of estimates Let’s compare absolute difference between estimate for year t in ... JD: December t+1 compared to July t+1 JJ: July t+2 compared to July t+1 LJ: latest vintage compared to July t+1 LD: latest vintage compared to Dec t+1 Years 2013 - 2016

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