James McCalley (jdm@iastate.edu) National Needs James McCalley (jdm@iastate.edu) REU Program, 2012

Sankey Diagram 40% 17% 26%

Unused Energy (Losses) Solar, 0.09 Nuclear, 8.45 Hydro, 2.45 Wind, 0.51 Geothermal0.35 Natural Gas 23.84 Coal 22.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 37.13 26.33 8.58 27.39 20.9 Unused Energy (Losses) 57.07 Electric Generation 39.97 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residential 11.48 Commercial Industrial 23.94 Trans-portation 27.86 8.45 6.82 20.54 6.95 LightDuty: 17.12Q Freight: 7.55Q Aviation: 3.19Q 3 3

US ENERGY USE IS ABOUT 70% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION GREENING ELECTRIC & ELECTRIFYING TRANSPORTATION SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM US CO2 EMISSIONS* IS ABOUT 71% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION * Anthropogenic 4

Unused Energy (Losses) Solar, 1.0 Nuclear,15 Hydro, 2.95 Wind, 8.1 Geothermal 3.04 Natural Gas 23.84 Old Coal 10.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 15.13 26.33 8.58 24.5 8.5 Unused Energy (Losses) 43.0 Electric Generation 49.72 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residential 11.48 Commercial Industrial 23.94 Trans-portation 15.5 15 6.82 20.54 6.95 INCREASE Non-GHG 12Q to 30Q USE 11Q Electric for transportation REDUCE COAL 22Q TO 10Q IGCC, 2.26 4.5Q REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q15Q LightDuty: 8.56Q Freight: 3.75Q Aviation: 3.19Q 5 5

Technolgy Forecasted NERC, 2018 Hi Eff&Renewable UCS (NEMS), 2030 Hi IGCC/CCS NAE, 2035 Hi Wind ISU, 2035 ∆GW Overnight cost Trillion $ Con Solar 20.4 0.102 238 1.195 - 65.5 0.329 PV solar 174 1.051 58.9 0.356 Nuclear 14.8 0.049 4.4 0.015 100 0.332 60.9 0.202 Wind onshore 229 0.440 670 1.288 350 0.673 630 1.211 Wind offshore 62 0.239 80 0.307 Geothrml 0.4 .002 31.8 0.127 106 0.424 Coal convntnl 19 0.039 red IGCC+seq 7 0.024 400 1.400 29.5 0.103 NGCC 107 Biomass 157 0.591 TOTALS 389 0.735 1344 4.516 850 2.405 1031 2.930 6

Why was wind growth in 2010/2011 less than in previous years? Poor 2008-2009 economy: Less willingness to load, to build projects Less power demand! Declining natural gas prices 7

Background on Wind Energy in US Percentage of New Capacity Additions. N. GAS WIND Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 8

Grand Challenge Question For Energy: What investments should be made, how much, when, and where, at the national level, over the next 40 years, to achieve a sustainable, low cost, and resilient energy & transportation system? 9

Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect? SOLAR GEOTHERMAL CLEAN-FOSSIL Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect? Wind BIOMASS NUCLEAR

Grand Challenges For Wind: Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used Develop economically-attractive methods to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues). Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture. 11