State Climate Office Intel Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 6/7/2018

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings May 2018 (46th Driest) Mar-May 2018 (37th Driest) -0.78” 37th -0.79” 33nd -0.82” 40th -1.24” 27th -0.22” 57th -1.02” 31st -0.57” 45th -0.15” 65th 0.02” 68th -0.42” 50th -0.24” 54th -1.03” 31st -0.55” 51st -0.18” 63th -0.53” 46th -0.61” 44th -0.61” 40th -1.07” 36th Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (124 years total).

Divisional Temperature Anomalies and Rankings May 2018 (7th Warmest) Mar-May 2018 (50th Coolest) 6.1F 117th 6.3F 119th -1.2F 45th -0.1F 56th 6.6F 120th 0.7F 73rd 5.9F 117th -0.8F 48th 6.7F 121st -0.8F 50th 6.3F 119th -0.8F 50th 5.3F 112th -0.7F 50th 5.6F 116rd -0.9F 47th 6.7F 120th -1.1F 48th Negative numbers indicate cooler than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically cooler conditions on record (124 years total).

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days (NDAWN Image) (HPRCC Image)

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) None 19% (0%) D2 11% (-2%) D1 53% (0%) DO 81% (0%)

Drought Change One-week Change 4-week Change

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 145 (-3) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 9496 (+145) 9,530 10,642 9653 19,319 2116 1714 *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (40mm = 1.6”)

Grassland Productivity Forecast (May-July) *These three maps show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s 34-year average. USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub: http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu/

7-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, Jun7 through Thu 1am, Jun14 *College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

14-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, June7 through Thu 1am, Jun21 *College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

Medium Range Forecast Week 3-4 Precipitation Week 3-4 Temperature

3-Mounth Outlook: June-August Precipitation Temperature CPC Seasonal Outlooks (NOAA)