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Our Agenda Recent Market Performance Expectations for Next 12-18 Months Fund Performance Update
CNN Money, 6/10/18 CNBC, 6/11/18 Forbes, 9/5/18 CNBC, 6/22/18 NPR, 5/11/18 Business Insider, 4/29/18 WSJ, 6/10/18
Record-Breaking Recovery Since the stock market bottomed in March of 2009, the S&P 500 has cumulatively returned how much through August 31, 2018: 126% B) 189% C) 290% D) 382%
Record-Breaking Recovery Since the stock market bottomed in March of 2009, the S&P 500 has cumulatively returned how much through August 31, 2018: 126% B) 189% C) 290% D) 382% Source: Bloomberg Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.
Record-Breaking Recovery The path higher has had some drama Europe “on Fire” Oil Collapse China Troubles Trade War Source: StyleAdvisor Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Market Performance Recap Market Index Returns – One year ending Source: StyleAdvisor Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
U.S. Companies Have Done Well Big U.S. companies outperform “analyst expectations” Company Results: Better Than Expected Source: Bloomberg
Trade War – Look Out Nobody wins in a trade war, but not everyone loses the same Source: IMF, Morningstar Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Our Agenda Recent Market Performance Expectations for Next 12-18 Months
The Global Economy
Global Expansion Remains Robust Corporate earnings are trending higher Source: IMF, JPM, MSCI, Bloomberg
Trade War – Should We Worry? Even when including the impact of tariffs, global manufacturing is expanding Source: OECD, JPM, Bloomberg
U.S. Equities
U.S. Economy “Leading Economic Indicators” are Looking Good Economic Expansion Expected Economic Contraction Expected Source: Bloomberg, Conference Board
U.S. Economy What are these Leading Economic Indicators? ▲ ▲▲ ▼ 10 Components What it Means to You Data Trend* Average weekly hours, manufacturing People making stuff RIGHT NOW ▲ Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance Are more or less people working RIGHT NOW? ▲▲ Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials Will stuff be made in the near future? ISM Index of New Orders Measure of Demand for New Orders Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders Measure of Demand for Stuff, no airplanes included Building permits, new private housing units New homes that WILL BE built ▼ Stock prices, 500 common stocks Rising/Falling stock prices helpful for next 6-months Leading Credit Index How hard is it to get access to money? Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds Difference in data can signal overall economic direction Source: Bloomberg, Conference Board, FRED *Trends provided by Francis Investment Counsel
Date of Mid-Term Election S&P 500 Index Total Return 1-Year Later What about Mid-Term Elections? Date of Mid-Term Election S&P 500 Index Total Return 1-Year Later 11/2/1954 38.96% 11/4/1958 14.66% 11/6/1962 29.01% 11/8/1966 16.70% 11/3/1970 16.34% 11/5/1974 24.11% 11/7/1978 12.40% 11/2/1982 25.41% 11/4/1986 4.25% 11/6/1990 29.32% 11/8/1994 30.39% 11/3/1998 22.10% 11/5/2002 17.01% 11/7/2006 8.74% 11/2/2010 5.84% 11/4/2014 6.71% Median 16.86% Average 18.87% Source: Bloomberg Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.
U.S. Equities Solid economic fundamentals Low near-term recession risk Stock prices are higher relative to other parts of the world We are Neutral/Overweight on U.S. Equities
International Equities
Valuations Attractive Both developed- and emerging-market equities are relatively cheaper vs. U.S. equities. Source: MSCI, Bloomberg
International Equities Younger recoveries with more room for growth Equites trade at a discount to U.S. More exposed to a prolonged trade war Economic fundamentals are more fragile than U.S. We are Neutral on Developed Market Equities We are Overweight on Emerging Market Equities
Hard Assets
Catalysts for Commodities Late-cycle dynamics tends to bode well for hard assets and commodity prices look very cheap relative to equities Source: Bloomberg Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.
Hard Assets U.S. output gap is closed, setting up a favorable environment for inflation-sensitive assets A strong global economy is supporting demand growth for most commodities We are Neutral/Overweight on Hard Assets
Bonds
Rates on the Rise The Federal Reserve Bank is actively trying to push rates higher, weighing on bond values Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Bonds Low absolute yields, monetary tightening, burgeoning inflation, and heightened interest rate risk all portend a difficult environment for bonds Higher absolute yields and depressed currency values make us slightly more optimistic on emerging market debt We are Neutral/Underweight on U.S. Fixed Income We are Neutral on Emerging Market Debt
Our Agenda Recent Market Performance Expectations for Next 12-18 Months Fund Performance Update
Putnam Stable Value Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/2018 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Vanguard Total Bond Mkt Index Instl Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/2018 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
DFA Inflation-Protected Securities I Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
DFA Inflation-Protected Securities I Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
MFS Emerging Mkts Debt R6 Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
MFS Emerging Mkts Debt R6 Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Dodge & Cox Stock Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Dodge & Cox Stock Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Vanguard Institutional Index I Fund Fund Performance vs Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Harbor Capital Appreciation Ret Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Harbor Capital Appreciation Ret Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
DFA US Targeted Value I Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
DFA US Targeted Value I Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Adm Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Loomis Sayles Sm-Cap Growth Instl Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Loomis Sayles Sm-Cap Growth Instl Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Harbor International Retirement Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Harbor International Retirement Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Amer Funds EuroPacific Growth R6 Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Amer Funds EuroPacific Growth R6 Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Oppenheimer Developing Mkts I Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
Oppenheimer Developing Mkts I Fund Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe
Morgan Stanley Instl Frontier Em Mkts Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
PIMCO CommodityPLUS Strategy I Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18 The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.
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