The role of models in supporting river basin management Michiel Blind Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment/RIZA

Contents Who am I? The projects I am involved in The role of models (ref: abstract) The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper) Open research questions Links to other topics Technological perspectives EU

Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 1: HarmonIT (FP5) - HarmonIT develops a model linkage interface standard: OpenMI Speeds up linking models to form integrated systems Allows selecting linking the best tools Allows re-use of generic tools Makes research in linkage and scaling possible Presentation Roger Moore

Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 2: HarmonRiB (FP5) - HarmonRiB researches Integrated uncertainty assessment of data/model systems, including socio-economics HarmoniRiB creates A virtual laboratory for modelling studies, in which as many data as possible are available, including associated uncertainties

Who am I: Projects I am involved in - 3: Harmoni-CA (FP5) – will produce GUIDANCE AND METHODOLOGIES based on SUPPORT AND CONSENSUS achieved by involving science, policy and stakeholders synthesising available knowledge establishing broad dialogues and tuning projects

Harmoni-CA Objectives create a forum for communication, information exchange and harmonisation of ICT-tools for integrated river basin management support framework for harmonised tools, incl. guidance stimulate proper development and use of tools

Organisational structure WP1: Establishment of a communication forum / Harmoni-CA management Guidance documents for river basin modelling WP3: Joint use of monitoring and modelling WP4: WP2: Toolbox Co-ordination ongoing / future RTD-activities WP6: WP5: Integrated assessment and the science-policy interface

The (FP5) CatchMod cluster: co-ordinated development and implementation of tools for the WFD Formal CatchMod CatchMod is not exclusive MULINO & Other EU research World Wide Initiatives National Clime Harmoni- RiB TransCat Harmoni- QuA EuroHarp Harmoni- -CA Harmon- IT BMW Harmoni- CoP Tizsa River Temp- QSim

Harmoni-CA activities this year September 16-17 Technical workshops Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling! November 4-5 Harmoni-CA Forum “harmonise river basin management tools and knowlegde for the implementation of the water framework directive.”

The role of models (ref: abstract) A Classification (of many) Short term operational Low uncertainty Mid term planning, management and immediate problem solving Relatively uncertain long term: long-term scenario analysis High Uncertainty

The role of models II The role of models very much depends on Availability and quality of data Complexity and spatial scale of the problem Political urgency and involvement Moment within the planning cycle Level of (public) participation … The models may be used in a quantitative or more qualitative fashion, for supporting dialogue or making actual decisions

The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper) WFD requires selecting an appropriate set of measures, with pre-requisite to be: broadly supported (Stakeholder participation) cost effective effectively reach a ‘good ecological status’ This requires a planning process

Collaborative planning process in integrated river basin management (e.g. WFD) Problem definition Solution Start Implementation Problems DIFFERENT ...eco-zones ...issues ...users ...preferences ...languages ...ambitions .... NOT FLEXIBLE NOT INTERACTIVE Interaction & communication THE WFD TOOL? Information: Data & Modelling Quality assurance Data system building Application Selection of building blocks Adaptation Tuning the system

Primary ICT & Modelling problem “Flexibility” Since… WFD system needs to provide information to all stakeholders on time for the planning process System may drastically change due to new insights & needs during the process (stakeholder demands!) It is required that… Linkages of information sources need to be standardized ⇒ IT interface for models and databases! Architecture! HarmonIT project develops OpenMI, the open modelling interface & architecture

“Secondary” problems If you have flexibility, the possibilities increase and related problems are: Selection of sets of models to link Overview and access to models Overview and access to model data Software and data quality assurance (Meta-) data standards Common data-models Quality assurance and consistency guidelines Methods for communicating with the non-specialist

Gaps which need to be filled in, or a currently being filled in by various CatchMod projects! Limited to model related issues Selection of sets of models to link Overview and access to models Overview and access to model data Software and data quality assurance (Meta-) data standards Common data-models Quality assurance and consistency guidelines Methods for communicating to the non-specialist Consistent view on proper scenario-development The consistent integrated use of all types of (foresight) models for long term scenario analysis Pan European to global network for information and tools for scenario development!

CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics Links to other topics Modelling and information systems are becoming more and more important in solving complex, international or global problems. Modelling environments should be seen as infrastructure, which need to be maintained and developed irrespective of the actual topic A key feature must be that development of dedicated (research or policy) topical systems keeps up with scientific ideas and policy development (policy cycle). CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics

Technological perspectives supporting solving the Global Water Crisis HarmonIT ⇒ presentation Roger Moore CatchMod & modelling in general Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may help To achieve consensus on the problems, resulting in global (political) awareness and acceptance (e.g. IPCC) To select cost-effective sets of measures To embed knowledge But be aware Political acceptance of modelling appears to be decreasing (for many reasons), Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may lead to ignorance!

5th ministerial conference Environment of Europe - Declaration Information from (modelling) systems is vital for a common understanding and feeds preferably into a (international) dialogue-decide-deliver management process (as opposed to a decide – announce – defend process!) [par 14 and many others] Socio-economic integration improves cross-boundary negotiation possibilities [par. 19, 37-41] CatchMod = par 20 (environmental information) Integrated modelling supports sustainable water management in general, especially when effects of different solution strategies have been captured in models (par 50-52) Dedicated interactive modelling/information systems can play an important part in education and public awareness (par 58) …

EU water initiative 2.1: Improve co-ordination and co-operation Models & information improve dialogue 2.1: Increase the efficiency of existing aid flows Models & information allow efficiency assessments of plans 3.2 & 3.3: Models & information improve dialogue thus support co-operation in general Language problems in tools need to be solved CatchMod should spread it’s wings (NIS etc)!

Harmoni-CA activities this year September 16-17 Technical workshops Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling! Registration has started www.harmoni-ca.info