An Industry in Search of the Status Quo When it appeared Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US presidential election, gun sales increased significantly; however, Donald Trump won and sales decreased appreciably. According to data from the FBI, it conducted 500,000 fewer background checks during December 2016, compared to December 2015. This trend continued into 2017, with a 6.2% decrease in background checks for the January–May period. The rebound appeared to begin during May when background checks increased 6.5%, or a total of 988,473. Then, Black Friday 2017 generated more than 203,000 requests for background checks, compared to 185,713 for Black Friday 2016, a 9.3% increase.

Major Manufacturers Suffering from the “Trump Slump” Although most current firearms manufacturers’ production numbers are from 2015, Strum Ruger, #1 for 2015, experienced a 21% decrease in gun sales during Q2 2017 because of the so-called “Trump Slump.” Outdoors retailer Cabela’s, which Bass Pro Shops is acquiring, reported Q2 2017 sales 4% less than Q2 2016, and same-stores decreased 10%. Remington Arms Co., third on Shooting Industry’s 2015 top manufacturers’ list, suffered even more, with net sales plunging 27.1% for the quarter ending April 2, 2017, or $84 million compared to $115.3 million for the same quarter during 2016.

The Effect of Crime Although the FBI Uniform Crime Report for 2016 revealed that murder and non-negligent manslaughter offenses increased 8.6%, property crimes decreased 1.0%; burglaries, 4.2%; and larceny-thefts, 1.3%. A mid-2017 report from the Brennan Center for Justice, based on data from the 30 largest cities, forecasted a 1.8% decline in the total crime rate in the US. The Brennan Center for Justice report also projected a 0.6% decrease in the violent crime rate, primarily because of a 2.4% decrease in the murder rate in Chicago and 14.7% in Washington, DC, both of which had elevated rates during recent years.

Painting Firearms Owners with a Broad Brush Based on its extensive research, The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) has designated 8 consumer segments of firearms owners: Urban Recruiter, Collector, Skills Builder, Debbie Defense, Protector, Guardian Gary, Hunter and Social Shooter. The NSSF research indicates that they are quite different. For example, Debbie Defense is more likely to buy from general sporting goods stores while Skills Builder is more likely to buy online and Urban Recruits from outdoor specialty stores. The NSSF’s Handgun Consumers Report found among women, 41% are current owners and 47% intend to buy a handgun. Among non- Caucasians, 18% are current owners and 22% intend to buy. Although 26% of beginners own a handgun, 48% intend to buy one.

Voters and Gun Control Guns, generally, and gun control, specifically, have been polarizing topics among the body politic for decades. According to October 2017 polling from Gallup, 61% of Americans said gun control is one of many major factors affecting for whom they vote. Another October 2017 Gallup poll found that 96% of poll participants said they support background checks for all gun purchases, 75% support a 30-day waiting period for all gun sales, and 70% support the registration of privately owned guns with local police. The findings of a November 2017 Gallup poll indicate for the first time that a slim majority, or 51% of those polled, support the passage of new gun laws. Another 47% want stricter enforcement of the current laws.

Advertising Strategies Share the 8 customer segments from the National Shooting Sports Foundation with prospects and clients and help them develop marketing programs and messages that target their primary segments first, and then make some effort to attract any of the others. With declining or flat sales, suggest that firearms retailers designate a larger share of their marketing budget to promoting accessories, as some retailers are able to increase handgun sales, for example, by two- thirds by highlighting accessories. Encourage dealers that own shooting ranges or to develop “strategic partnerships” with local ranges to help individual customers during a sale to determine how quickly they can travel to a nearby range. Promote range shooting as an experiential activity for young adults.

New Media Strategies To help promote range shooting as an experiential activity for young adults, actively encourage them to share their experiences and the sociability of the activity with videos and photos on social media. Record and post a series of short videos, featuring employees, showing the latest handgun and other firearm accessories, and provide a mobile/online coupon for the purchase of a bundle of accessories when buying a gun of a qualifying amount. Share content (preferably) from YouTube and other sources about gun safety on your Website and social media. Consider placing one of more tablets throughout the store with a loop of these videos.