WHY STUDY CHINA? Despite the emphasis on the modern European state, it is one of the first national states—4000 years old. It has previously led the world in technological innovation, science, and public works. 1.3 billion people (but shrinking faster than India)… 175 cities with more than a million people (vs. 9 in the US). Whatever China does, it moves the dial. GDP matters. 5-10% annual economic growth a year since the end of the Cultural Revolution; Today: GDP per cap at PPP = 9,800 (2 x India’s; 1/2 Russia, 1/5 the US); its Gini coefficient now = to that of the US. $600B in mostly complementary trade with US. Its economic structure—growing middle classes, limited lootable assets, physical location, and lack of existential threats make it a major long-term candidate for democratization. But now, it is an ideological (the Beijing Consensus) and military competitor for the US over the long run– Many realists think that major conflict is inevitable. On the other hand, thus far its location, history, ethnic homogeneity (90% are Han), dominant ideology (isolationism + Confucianism), pol. stability (competitive oligarchy; lots of meritocracy), increasingly professional army, and well-executed US policy have led it to be a unique example of a peaceful rise. It is an interesting counter-example to Russian communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

TOTALITARIANISM AND AUTHORITARIANISM IN CHINA Period 1: Revolution and complete totalitarianism? Opium War 1839-42 = imperialism by multiple Western states-> 1919 overthrow of the west-weakened Qing dynasty -> Civil War with the western-supported “nationalists” -> Japanese invasion -> Consolidation of a “Marxist” revolution: 1949 Why ebbs and flows with Chairman Mao’s hold?: Some separation of powers Balancing power bw party and state And bw different approaches to nationalism: Radical socialism for the masses (“Reds” or “populists”) vs. moderate authoritarian nationalists (“experts” or elitists) Mao’s various “Campaigns” vs. Soviet “purges” The Great Leap Forward (1958-1960)… Small scale production on an epic scale lead s to disaster. The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)… Attack the olds Period 2: From totalitarianism by cult into institutional author. and oligarch Deng Xiaoping, “the Senior Vice-Premier” and anti-Mao (1977-1997) The four “modernizations” (Ag, Indust, Science, Army) = “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” The one-child policy, opening to the west, joint foreign investment, Formal transitions: 2 five-year terms at the top with age mandatory retirements

INSTITUTIONALIZING AUTHORITARIANISM IN CHINA Period 3: Growth and uncertainty about the balance bw growth and control  The 1989 movement and a potential split in the regime (Tiananmen Square) 1997: Power consolidation under Jiang Zemin leads to the death of communism and democracy movements in China… but the long-term strategy of the regime changes? Under Hu Jintao Making China a global economic (“sticky”) and “soft power” player rather than a model communist power – leads to WTO 2001. Promoting technocrats at all levels of the party Very limited democratization with a strong emphasis on wewen (stability policy), and a large focus on internal rejuvenation that allowed for a large array of opinion w/in the CCP…esp under Hu Jintao Period 4: The Chinese Dream and “National Rejuvenation” 2012, Xi Jinping takes power in centralizes power with purges… Why not more democracy? He needed to get ruling elites on the same page with less state econ centralism (i.e., he learned some impt. lessons from Putin vs. USSR) Growth will slow down, and there is a new focus on growing the Chinese middle-class and attn. to those who haven’t benefited from development so far. Nationalism ala Putin with a softer touch? “Bide your time” -> major player: The Olympics, international expansion (in economics, but esp. military aggression), “One Belt, One Road” initiative 2017: Xi to a second term… Now raised to the level of Mao and above Deng

POLITICAL POWER IN CHINA…VERY BRIEFLY The Chinese Communist Party General secretary (1), Standing committee (7), Central Committee (350), National Party Congress (2000), and a highly fluid nomenklatura (30 million strong, including about 1/3 of the country’s leading “capitalists”) The Chinese State (almost all are also party leaders) A written constitution with lots of liberties, but… President State council, standing committee (Politburo), & the PM The Standing Committee of the NPC (155 members). Meets just once every year. The People’s Congress (2000 or so). Meets every five years to rubberstamp. This is where actual elections happen… with very little choice The danwei (work unit) and hukou (household registration) system The People’s Liberation Army

CAN YOU HAVE PERESTROIKA WITHOUT GLASNOST? How has the leadership rotation and an emphasis on merit made China work better than in Russia’s final days? How is party membership changing? Why does it matter that reform started much earlier than Russia and Iran? How does China’s huge population impact the choices and opportunities for the CCP? How does the distribution of the population help/hinder democracy? What lies ahead? How does the origin of China’s wealth impact the CCP ? Why may China have to distribute wealth (as high as 6K per cap PPP now) more equally? Why doesn’t Russia’s elite have to worry as much? How does Chinese nationalism impact the choices and opportunities for the CCP? Would a US confrontation help to make China more democratic or less? Why can China compete globally in a way the Soviets and Russia couldn’t? How and why are they doing so well? Is there a limit to the growth? Will Chinese politics reach an equilibrium that doesn’t include democracy or is a transition inevitable? What about Russia