The Happiest Holidays for Years According to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, the 2017 holiday shopping season, which includes all of November and December through 12/24, generated a 4.9% increase in retail sales and helped deliver a GDP of 2.6% for Q4 2017. The same data source, however, revealed an 18.1% increase in online retail shopping, with 11.0% during just December, or 13.5% of total December retail sales. The US Census Bureau’s retail sales grand total for Q4 2017, which includes food services and motor vehicles and parts, was $1.48 trillion, a 5.7% increase from Q4 2016’s grand total of $1.4 trillion.

Selling More and Spending More Starts with Confidence Wage growth has been somewhat anemic, although it is starting to improve. It increased 18.2% (from 2.2% to 2.6%) for all civilian workers, which include private industry and state and local government, from December 2016 to December 2017. Disposable income improved significantly during 2017, increasing 2.3%, to an average of $44,601 by December 2017, compared to just a 1.0% increase during 2016. The optimism of small-business owners, according to the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Industry survey, increased from 80 for Q1 2017 to 103 for Q4 2017, and then increased again, to 107, for Q1 2018.

October: Not a Great Start for Early Holiday Shopping Although more consumers start their holiday shopping as early as October (and even earlier), the October 2017 sales metric in RetailNext’s Retail Performance Pulse Report was the second worst of the year, at - 10.9%, only exceeded by February’s -13.3%. All the other metrics were in negative territory, except for conversions, which are sales transactions as a percentage of traffic, at +0.4%, and percent returns, or returns transactions as a percentage of total transactions, at +0.5%. Despite a National Retail Federation forecast of $9.1 billion in Halloween spending, an 8.3% increase from 2016, the last week of the October recorded YOY declines in sales of 12.2% and traffic of 6.7%.

November: Black Friday Weekend Saves the Month Overall, November wasn’t much of an improvement compared to October until Black Friday Weekend. For the month, the two major categories, sales decreased 9.0% YOY, and traffic, -7.7%. Black Friday Weekend delivered a very slim “improvement” in brick-and-mortar sales, at -8.9%; however, traffic increased significantly, at -4.4%. Conversions, at -0.2%, and average transaction values (ATV), at -1.6%, were the drivers of the poor sales results. Not surprisingly, the days of November with the best performances in 5 of the 7 metric categories occurred on either Thanksgiving or Black Friday; however, week 2 was the best week, with transactions, -2.6%; net sales, 0.0%; and ATV, +2.1%.

December: Better Metrics for the Best Month of the Year Considering the strong final sales numbers for the holiday shopping season (November 1–December 24), the RetailNext metrics for December should have been the best of the quarter, and they were, with sales - 5.5% and green numbers for 4 other metrics. December store traffic, however, wasn’t much better than November, at -7.5% and -7.7%, respectively. It was ATV’s YOY increase of 1.7% and SY’s YOY increase of 2.3% that “saved” the month’s sales metric. The overall sales metric at -5.5% for the month was reflected in the regional sales performances: Northeast, -6.9%; South, -4.4%; Midwest, -8.4%; and West, -7.0%.

Advertising Strategies Although your prospects and clients must execute Q1 and Q2 advertising campaigns, this is the time of the year to “invest in building an audience base” and offer incentives to generate maximum loyalty, so more customers return for 2018 holiday shopping. Planning and hosting a number of events during Q2 and Q3 (and offering pre-registration) can be a big aid in generating maximum customer loyalty. As they are attracted to events throughout the year, retailers are more likely to attract them to important holiday events. Suggest that your prospective and current advertisers sponsor any station-promoted or -sponsored events throughout the summer and distribute either paper or mobile coupons to participants for pre-holiday shopping prior to November 1st.

New Media Strategies Consider creating and promoting through social media and/or email campaigns a pre-pre-holiday wish/shopping list on a page on your Website where customers can start to create a list, so you can plan inventory well in advance. Distribute coupons to those who start a list. You can also use Pinterest or other social media platforms, your Website and email campaigns to show customers products you’ve discovered during the middle of the year that could be added to your holiday inventory. Ask them to vote on those they prefer. Equipping your sales associates with mobile devices for customer interactions is very beneficial for you, your sales associates and customers. Now is the time to make this investment, so your associates have time for training and are ready for the holidays.