PLANNING SITUATIONS - a general approach to scenario development - Iver Johansen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

FOUR PROBLEMS Jamming by scenarios Flawed scenario selection Scenarios as predictions Scenario officialism

PLANNING SITUATIONS AND SCENARIOS - General types of threats and challenges X X X Scenarios: Specific points within the “scenario space” X X X X X X PI PII PIII ……………… Pn

PLANNING SITUATIONS - PARAMETERS - Object of security: Norway “The rest of the world” Type of actor Non-state actors State actors Russia Type of conflict

CONFLICT TYPOLOGY INTENSITY Low intensity conflicts High Low intensity conflicts International crises Sabotage Small-scale terrorist attacks Incidents War between states War within states Large-scale terrorist attacks Limited attacks High SCOPE Low

PLANNING SITUATIONS: PARAMETERS PARAMETERS VALUES Security object Norway Rest of the world Type of actor Non-state actors state actors Russia Intensity of conflict Low High Scope of conflict Low High

NATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS INTENSITY Low High P4 Russia High International crisis and war SCOPE P2 Non-state actors Terrorist attacks State actors/Russia State actors/Russia Low Limited attack Missile attack Raids P1 Incidents Low-level crises P3

INTERNATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS INTENSITY Low High Non-state actors/state actors/ Russia Non-state actors War between states War within states Large-scale terrorist attacks Limited attacks High Organised crime Terrorist attacks Sabotage Riots P5 SCOPE P6 Non-state actors Low State actors