LAMAS Working Group 19-21 June 2017 Agenda Item 2.3 Break in time series Riccardo.Gatto@ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Background Already discussed in LAMAS and DSS several times Last discussed in TF1 (Athens) on 24/25 April 2017 Where we are: Agreement to limit correction for breaks to policy indicators (EU2020 strategy, MIP scoreboard, PEEIs, Employment and social policy and Sustainable development indicators); no break correction for detailed series Agreement on a set of methodological approaches for the evaluation of the impact of the break; the choice of the method will nevertheless be a national responsibility Eurostat

Background - TF1 output TF1 agreed in reducing requirements on MSs in terms of number of indicators for which impact factors are to be sent deadline for the transmission List of the 14 indicators and detailed transmission/dissemination calendar are in the LAMAS document at pages 3 and 5 respectively Eurostat

Background – TF1 output Member States are asked to transmit on a compulsory basis: • one quarterly/annual factor (multiplicative or additive factor, preferably multiplicative, to be used for back-calculation of the time series) estimating the impact of the break; • for each of the 14 required indicators/breakdowns; • together with the 2020 Q3 micro-data, i.e. by December 2020 (it is to be noted that in the initial proposal, the deadline was end of December 2019). Calendar will shift according to final decisions on implementation date of IESS FR. On an optional basis, Member States can provide: • back-calculated series for the 14 indicators/breakdowns, starting at least from the first quarter of 2008; • additional factors; • and/or additional indicators/breakdowns part of the sets of policy indicators. Eurostat

LAMAS exchange of views Yes = 74% over 31 79% among only Y/N Eurostat

Open Issues List of indicators Small groups: please consider that Age groups are defined on the basis of the needs for the policy indicators (ex. Employment 20-64 or 25-64) Elder people and very small groups: the assumption is that impact factors will be equal to 1 when not significant Requests for splitting age groups can be implemented by the countries requesting it, details can be transmitted On this basis we can deal bilaterally with particular requests from MSs Eurostat

LAMAS exchange of views Yes = 68% over 31 81% among only Y/N Yes = 61% over 31 90% among only Y/N Eurostat

Open Issues Calendar Timeliness and short term analysis: MSs are free to anticipate the back calculation if they will back calculate the series by themselves Eurostat will stick to needs for annual policy indicators Shift in date of implementation of the IESS FR: calendar will be shifted accordingly Eurostat

Open Issues Methodology Methodology for the evaluation of the impact of the break will be responsibility of the MSs The approach can be chosen among the set of feasible approaches agreed in LAMAS and DSS From the previous written consultation (February) very limited number of proposed methods not in line This can be managed on a bilateral discussions Eurostat

LAMAS is invited to discuss : final list of variables as a minimum set of required information transmission calendar considering allowed freedom to anticipate if needed dissemination strategy (calendar and contents) methodology issues to be discussed bilaterally Eurostat