Predicting Mortality in Patients With Bleeding Peptic Ulcers After Therapeutic Endoscopy  Philip W.Y. Chiu, Enders K.W. Ng, Frances K.Y. Cheung, Francis K.L. Chan, W.K. Leung, Justin C.Y. Wu, Vincent W.S. Wong, M.Y. Yung, Kelvin Tsoi, James Y.W. Lau, Joseph J.Y. Sung, Sydney S.C. Chung  Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology  Volume 7, Issue 3, Pages 311-316 (March 2009) DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044 Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 ROC curve on the prediction of in-hospital mortality by the model combining various predictive factors for the derivation cohort (age >70, the presence of comorbidities, number of comorbidities, hematemesis on presentation, initial systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, in-hospital ulcer bleeding, non–H pylori–related ulcers, rebleeding, and need for surgery) identified in the derivation cohort by using stepwise logistic regression. The AUC is 0.842. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 311-316DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 ROC curve on the prediction of in-hospital mortality with the combination of pre-endoscopic predictive factors only for the derivation cohort (including age >70, presence of comorbidities, number of comorbidities, hematemesis on presentation, initial systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, in-hospital ulcer bleeding). The AUC is 0.789. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 311-316DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Distribution of cases of in-hospital mortality in relation to the scores attained from the evaluation cohort of 634 patients with bleeding peptic ulcers. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 311-316DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 ROC curve on the prediction of mortality comparing the Chinese University ulcer bleed score with the Rockall score for the evaluation cohort of 634 patients with bleeding peptic ulcers. The AUC is 0.729 for the CU prediction score (black line) and 0.621 for the Rockall score (gray line). Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 311-316DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 ROC curve on the prediction of mortality in the evaluation cohort with pre-endoscopic predictive factors only. The AUC is 0.686. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 311-316DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2008.08.044) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions