Adam Scaife Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK.

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Presentation transcript:

Adam Scaife Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK. Using C20C to test models Adam Scaife Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK.

Some Key Indices collected: Land Surface Temperature (annual mean) Darwin and Tahiti PMSL (monthly) Iceland and Azores PMSL (DJF) Sahel rainfall (JJAS) Indian monsoon rainfall (Fred K.) Contact Model Ensemble Means? Ensemble members? T.Zhou GAMIL / CAM2 x K.Jin /J.Kinter NCEP CFS / COLA P.Pegion NASA GSFC F.Kucharski ICTP S.Kusunoki MRI-JMA P.Sporyshev MGO A.Voldoire METEO FR. S.Grainger BMRC Jin CESRC J.Syktus QNRME J.Yoon UMCP © Crown copyright 2004

Normalised indices © Crown copyright 2004

Absolute Anomalies © Crown copyright 2004

Conceptual model for analysis Potentially predictable, “forced” and well modelled YES 20th Century Climate Event (e.g. surface T trend) Consistent with ensemble means? Unpredictable internal variation but well modelled YES NO Consistent with ensemble members? Poorly modelled in this experiment: missing process/forcing NO © Crown copyright 2004

Ensemble mean changes Land temperature 1970-2000 Sahel rainfall 1950-1980 NAO index 1965-1995 C20C model → C20C model → C20C model → Within range of model ensemble means so: “Potentially predictable, forced and well modelled” Outside range of model ensemble means: small part is forced Outside range of model ensemble means: not forced © Crown copyright 2004

Ensemble member changes: Sahel rainfall 1950-1980 NAO index 1965-1995 C20C model → C20C model → Outside range of ensemble members: Missing process or forcing Outside range of ensemble members: Missing process or forcing © Crown copyright 2004

Conclusions / Further work For poorly modelled changes: AGCM vs PACEMAKER, aerosol vs no aerosol? Other events and changes: Dustbowl diagnostic? Indian Monsoon changes? Original C20C list… Variability in SOI, NAO etc Extremes? 2D data? SST relationships? Is this the basis for a C20C paper which examines whether we can explain major climate events of the past 100 years? © Crown copyright 2004