State of Trucking Industry Shaping Forces Reggie Dupré, CEO Dupré Logistics, LLC
US Industrial Production Index SOURCE: ITR Economics Trends Report, August 2018
US Industrial Production Index SOURCE: ITR Economics Trends Report, August 2018
US Industrial Production Index SOURCE: ITR Economics Trends Report, August 2018
Chemical Volume Projections NTTC Tank Truck Market Analysis estimates CAGR of 2.9% for chemicals 2016-2021 Chemical Week projects 2018 chemical growth (excluding Pharma) of 3.8% growth Reshoring of manufacturing in U.S. should drive sustainable chemicals volume growth Momentum is building Growth is at highest rate since 2004 200,000 jobs added in 2017 400,000 jobs added since Presidential election
FTR Truck Loadings Index (Y/Y %) SOURCE: FTR; Index: 2000 = 100
Active Truck Utilization (%) SOURCE: FTR; Historical Average = 90%
Truck Loadings: Tank (Y/Y %) SOURCE: FTR; Index: 2000 = 100
Private Sector Employment Highlights Employment was up 1.8% from the year-ago level Employment will rise through at least 2020 Temporary Services Employment signals that the pace of growth for overall Employment will slow in early 2019 Forecast 12/12 12MMA 2018 2.0% 126.6 2019 1.6% 128.7 2020 1.3% 130.4 US Private Sector Employment in the 12 months through June was up 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. Employment will grow through at least 2020. The rate of rise will increase into early next year. The pace of growth will then slow through the rest of 2019 and 2020. The US Temporary Services Employment 3/12, which typically leads overall Employment by about three to four quarters, is declining from a tentative April peak. Further decline in this indicator would suggest that Private Sector Employment will transition to a slowing growth trend in early 2019, consistent with our forecast. However, do not plan on Employment contracting during this time. The labor supply will likely remain tight through the length of this forecast, making employee retention increasingly important, as qualified applicants will be harder to find. SOURCE: ITR Economics Trends Report, August 2018
Construction & Manufacturing SOURCE: BLS: (www.FTRintel.com
Truck Transportation SOURCE: BLS: (www.FTRintel.com)
Shaping Forces
Drivers Average Age of Truck Driver 50 Dupré Driver 47 American Worker 42 Women in Overall Workforce 47% Trucking 5 – 6% Percentage of Drivers 35 Years & Younger 6% We aren’t raising our children to be truck drivers We lose our pipeline of younger drivers due to 21-year-old minimum age for interstate driving
Drivers More Job Alternatives Available Unemployment At or Below 4% Construction Jobs Added in Last 5 Years 1.3 million Quality vs Quantity – the Shortage “Feels” Worse Seasoned Drivers are Retiring Applicants Who Cannot Pass Background/Drug Tests 30%
Driver Shortage Trend Forecast SOURCE: ATA’s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017
Total Number of Drivers Needed Through 2026 SOURCE: ATA’s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017
Share of Drivers Needed Through 2026 Drivers Leaving Before Retirement 7% Drivers Pushed Out of the Industry 16% Retirements 49% Industry Growth 28% SOURCE: ATA’s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017
What are the Best Companies Doing? Take a Strategic Position What’s Your Vision of the Future? Is this a Blip… or here to stay?
What are the Best Companies Doing? Make it through this Short-Term Crisis, then… Business as Usual Act on your Decision Blip --
What are the Best Companies Doing? Driver Shortage is Real and Here to Stay Help Improve Lives of Drivers Move to Collaborative Relationships with Transportation Partners We can Solve this Together Respect/ Significance Safe Operation Pay/ Benefits Quality of Life -- Schedules -- Length of Haul
What are the Best Companies Doing? Driver Shortage is Real and Here to Stay “Take Some Balls out of the Air” Move a Percentage of your Needs to Dedicated Fleet Guaranteed Capacity Guaranteed Pricing Align Workforces Collaborate to Improve Execution Create Better Driver Jobs Utilize 3PL Expertise for Design & Execution Utilize Intermodal as Much as Possible
Equipment Technology Facilitate Safe Operation ELD’s Speed Limiters Automatic Emergency Braking Systems Anti-Rollover Systems Cameras -- Back-up -- Driver Facing -- Forward Facing -- Side Mirror Replace Forward Collision Warning System Lane/ Departure Warning Blind Spot Detection Adaptive Lighting
Platform Technology TMS Predictive Analytics Execution Visibility Analysis for Improvement Predictive Analytics Demand Safe Operation Equipment Uptime Turnover
OLD NEW Relationships ABUNDANT SCARCE Truck Capacity ADVERSARIAL COLLABORATIVE
Driver Jobs – Lower or Last Choice Preference for Manufacturing or Construction Over Driver Job Even if Driver Job Pays More Why?
Causes of Driver Turnover SOURCE: Driver iQ Recruitment & Retention Survey, Q1 2018
Safest Drivers are Compliant & Steady Lack of Communication Unpredictability of Paycheck Each Week Issues Resolving Problems Unpredictability of Home Time Problems with Supervisors Lack of Steady Miles
Compensation Needed to Reduce Turnover by Size of Carrier SOURCE: Driver iQ Recruitment & Retention Survey, Q1 2018
Q&A