Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION Prof.ssa Luisa Natale http://www.docente.unicas.it/luisa_natale/ email oli59@mclink.it

MOBILITY AND MIGRATION 4a. MEASURES

Measures The study of migration focuses on: Intensity (absolute values, rate, …) Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type

A) Intensity of migration Estimate of NET MIGRATION Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens

NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate For example: Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide 6) Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html → Bilancio demografico 2010 B. Indirect estimate

Total Population Balance nPt = nPt-1+nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t B = births D = deaths I = Immigration E = Emigration t = time, n = type of population (in this case, total population) nB∆t - nD∆t = Natural Increase n I∆t - nE∆t = Net Migration

Total Population Increase nPt - nPt-1 = Total population increase nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t This is the classical definition of a population balance

The real population balance In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)

The two population balances nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t the classical population balance nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t + n OI∆t - nOE∆t + n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered/cancelled (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance the real population balance (see Italy)

The internal migration balance (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance = enrolled from others municipalities-cancelled to other municipalities It should be egual to zero, but due to late in the process of registration/deregistration of flows in each municipalities the balance is always different from zero (often fifty-sixty thousands of movements, very scarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internal movements)

EXERCISE Calcolate: 1) the Equation of total population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate ,slide 12) 2) total population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

TOTAL POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)

EXERCISE Natural Increase= nB∆t - nD∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544 Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = +n I∆t - nE∆t = 458856 – 78771= 380,085 Technical balance n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered – others cancelled = 40040 – 119416 = - 79376 (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )=total internal balance=1374363-1363414=10949 Other components (net migration due to other reasons):-79376 – 10949 = - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): 380085 – 68427= 311,658

Equation of Population: Italy 2010, 31.12 60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658 where: Natural Increase: - 25,544 Net (International) Migration: + 380,085 Other components (net migration due to other reasons): - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): + 311,658 Total Increase: 60,626,442 - 60,340,328 = 286,114

FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate

Equation of Foreign population Population Total Increase → fPt - fPt-1 fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt + + fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad) fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled) fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities)

EXERCISE Calcolate: 1) the Equation of foreign population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate ,slide 12) 2) foreign population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

Equation of Foreign population fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt + + fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78,082 - 5,124 fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424,499 - 32,817 = 391682 fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= 22272-91093 = - 68821 fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = 234190 – 228813= 5377

FOREIGN NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate Net (International) Migration: + 391682 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391682 – 68821 + 5377 = +328238

Equation of Foreign Population (Italy 2010) 4,570,317 = 4,235,059 + 72,958 + 328,238 + (-65,938) 4,570,317 - 4,235,059 = + 72,958 + 328,238 - 65,938 335,258 = 335,258 Total Increase = 335,258 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68,821 + 5,377 = +328238 Natural Increase = +72,958 Naturalised = -65,938

Foreign population increase (Italy 2010) 4570317 - 4235059 = +335258

EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign population by distinguish each component Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December 2011. Italy

Foreign contribution to the increase During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component: