Ready to Compromise? Where Voters Stand on the Brexit Impasse John Curtice NatCen Social Research/University of Strathclyde Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe @whatukthinks whatukthinks.org/eu

Questions What did voters make of Mrs May’s compromise? How might alternative compromises fair? How about passing the decision back to voters? What are the opportunities and constraints facing the parties?

Support or Oppose The Deal? Source: YouGov

Plunging The Depths of Pessimism Source: ORB

A Remarkable Outbreak of Unity! Source: Average of 6 YouGov polls, 3.12.18-7.1.19

Relative Popularity Source: Deltapoll, ICM, IQR, Opinium, Survation, YouGov

Different Priorities Sources: YouGov 27.11-4.12.18; Survation 10-11.1.19; Deltapoll 26-27.11.18

Procedural Pluralism Source: Opinium

Hiding A Polarised Structure Source: Average of 6 polls by Opinium 26.9-18.1.19

Comparing The Substantive Options Source: BMG Research 28.11-6.12.18. Figures for ‘All’ are recalculations from the original data

Rating The Options Source: BMG Research 8-11.1.19

An Explicit Search for Compromise Source: YouGov 7-8.1.19

A Soft Brexit Does Not Bridge The Divide Source: YouGov 7-8.1.19

Stay in the Single Market and Customs Union? Sources: Greenberg Quinian Rosner; YouGov: Sept. 2018

Another Third Choice? Source: Survation 10-11.1.19

A People’s/Public Vote on …...

Referendum on Remain vs Leave

Wording Matters To Leave Voters – But Evidently A Remainer Project Source: 12 polls conducted by Ashcroft, BMG, Deltapoll, Opinium Populus, Survation, YouGov: 15-11.18-18.1.19

Hindsight From YouGov

EURef2 Poll of Polls

The Turnover of ‘Votes’ Vote Now/Vote 2016 Remain (%) Leave Did Not Vote 87 9 44 7 83 18 Undecided/Would Not Vote 6 8 38 Source: Average of 13 polls conducted by BMG, ComRes, Deltapoll, Kantar, and YouGov between 15.11.18 and 17.1.19

Deal vs Remain Sources: Opinium, Populus, Survation, YouGov

Beware The Leavers Who Won’t Say Source: Average of 3 polls by YouGov 19.12.18 – 16.1.19

Mirror Images Source: Average of Polls by ComRes, Kantar, Survation and YouGov 21.12.18-17.1.19

Reflecting the Procedural Divide Source: Average of 5 polls by Opinium 26.9-20.12.18

And the Substantive One

Party Division On A Soft Brexit Source: YouGov 7-8.1.19

And On Another Referendum Source: 10 polls conducted by Ashcroft, BMG, Deltapoll, Opinium Populus, Survation, YouGov: 15-11.18-16.1.19

Not Ready To Compromise? No procedural or substantive option appears to be both widely popular and capable of bridging the Brexit divide A soft Brexit is a Remainer compromise that runs the risk of being little loved – much like Mrs May’s Leaver compromise A second referendum is not as popular as sometimes claimed and is also a Remainer solution Although Con & Lab have an incentive to seek a compromise, their voters reflect the Brexit divide