The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa (2014) In: American Political Science Review Presented by: Vanessa Vohs

Authors Timothy Besley Marta Reynal-Querol LSE and Political Science and Canadian Marta Reynal-Querol Pompeu Fabra-ICREA and Barcelona

Structure What we already knew Impact of precolonial conflict Approach Data Postcolonial conflict Trust and identity Economic growth Historical kingdoms Conclusion Discussion

What we already knew The impact of colonialism in Africa Zimbabwe GDP per capita: 1,008 USD Great Britain GDP per capita 42,514 USD

What we already knew Does colonialism constitute the only factor which deprived Zimbabwe from economic growth and led to a larger scale of conflict? What impact do precolonial conflicts have?

Hypotheses Natural ressource dependence Weak and poorly functioning political institutions Ethnic fragmentation and polarization Endemic poverty Closer look at the subnational level necessary

„Acts of violence, opression, revolt, civil war, and so forth, chequer the history of every African state.“ (Fortes and Evans-Pritchard 1940, 16) Conflict is far from new Slavery and its aftermath was a cornerstone of organized political conflicts Does the legacy of precolonial conflicts in Africa have a significant impact on the prevalence of postcolonial conflict? What does conflict year mean? at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

Underlying assumptions Conflicts are most prevalent in poor and weakly institutionalized countries (Acemoglu, Robinson) Conflict prevalence in Africa is comparatively high 8,5 % of country-years are conflict years in Africa since 1950 compared to 5% in the rest of the world Is postcolonial conflict correlated with the prevalence of precolonial conflicts?

Approach Data Comparison From a conflict catalogue to locate 91 conflicts in Africa between 1400 and 1700 (“includes most important conflicts”) Comparison Subnational conflicts between 1997 and 2010

Two-levels analysis 1. across-countries 2. within-countries

Approach 120km x 120km grids from the Yale University G-econ: 3546 country-grid cells spread across 49 countries in Africa.

The „pill“ In the precolonial period, Africa was divided into protostates (historical kingdoms) with heterogeneous political systems  Many countries received the „pill“ (historical kingdom) and a few did not

https://www. globalsecurity https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-african-kingdoms-01.jpg

Main findings Historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of postcolonial conflict After countries gained independence In more recent conflicts Historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity, and a weaker sense of national identity across countries Historical conflict is negatively correlated with subsequent patterns of development within countries

Descriptive Statistics Civil war prevalence in years now (mean) No historical conflict: 2.24 With historical conflict: 4.62  significant Expropriation risk (scale 1-7) No historical conflict: 6.17 With historical conflict: 5.39  Not significant

Descriptive Statistics (grid-cell level) Capital city in the grid: No historical conflict: 1.4% With historical conflict: 12% Conflict 1997-2010 (dummy-variable) No historical conflict: 39% With historical conflict: 84% Belonging to an historical kingdom Conflicts are twice as likely in grid cells which belong to Historical Kingdoms

Descriptive Statistics Conclusion: European powers made significantly use of preexisting power structures Colonial control did not respect boundaries of historical kingdoms  Weakened existing authority structures

Problems in measurement Precolonial period Colonial period Postcolonial period

Slavery How can we make sure that slavery wasn‘t the main driving factor towards civil war prevalence? Inclusion of a slave trade variable (Nunn, 2008) Slavery is positively correlated with subsequent civil conflict It does not disrupt the correlation with war prevalence between 1400-1700

Problems in measurement Initial conditions Economic Geographic Political Social Historical conflict Subsequent Economic, Political and Social Outcomes Developments Contemporary conflict

Problems in measurement Precolonial conflict Distrust among social groups Attitudes & Identities Economic legacy

Robustness Control variables: GDP per capita in 1970, latitude, longitude, minimum rainfall, maximum humidity, low temperature, measures of natural resource abundance… Remains significant For an additional year of historical conflict, the country suffers about 2 months of additional conflict in the postindependence period  60 years of conflicts predicts an additional 10 years of postindependence conflict

Omitted factors „there is a reason to be cautious in interpreting [the results] beyond the usual concerns about the vulnerability of cross-country analysis to unobserved omitted variables“ Dropping Angola and Ethiopia leads no longer to a correlation

Income Levels and Institutions A country with a history of precolonial conflict will have a 5% lower level of per capita GDP in 2000 compared with a country that has had no historical conflicts but postcolonial conflict could also have an effect No significant correlation between expropriation risk at the country level and historical conflict

Trust and Identity Negative correlation between trust and historical conflict Positive and significant correlation between having only a sense of ethnic identity and the extent of historical conflict within a country

European influence Conflict between 1400 and 1700 is positively correlated with non- European conflict between 1700 and 1820 Non-European conflict between 1700 and 1820 is correlated with contemporary conflict

Conclusion Some phenomena are the product of historical legacies Should not lead to the conclusion that what we see is historically determined Contribution of the paper is useful for policy advise

https://www. globalsecurity https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-african-kingdoms-01.jpg

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https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=67&r=af&l=en

Recap: Main findings Historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of postcolonial conflict After countries gained independence In more recent conflicts Historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity, and a weaker sense of national identity across countries Historical conflict is negatively correlated with subsequent patterns of development within countries

Personal Conclusion & Discussion Significance of precolonial conflicts Is 1400-1700 an appropriate period? Is 1997-2010 an appropriate period? Independence in many African countries happened earlier The impact of arbitrary boundaries Rhodesian Bush War 1964-1979 Gukurahundi: massacres of Ndebele civilians by the Shona majoity