ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation Drivers of ENSO variability By MSc. Per Strandberg

Current understanding of ENSO by the climate community Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves Forecast : Bad 2-3 months Long range forecast impossible : Wrong Variability driven by weather noise : Wrong Understanding what triggers ENSO variability: They have no clue Black Box Syndrome The butterfly effect and chaos theory

The real drivers of ENSO And the real butterfly effect Lunar Perigee Pulses Variations on solar wind Variations in Earth’s magnetic field, Ap, Kp Random weather noise 5-10% Electromagnetic influences from the Sun 30-25% Lunar Perigee Pulses 60-70%

Problem: In-data -> Out-data ENSO drivers hidden deep in data Problem: In-data -> Out-data Non linear relationship No fix frequencies Time delays: months to years Linear regression, frequency analysis, dynamic, statistical models = times series ANN, Markov chain: Doesn’t work ANN: Works

ANN applied on ENSO Asymptotic transfer functions Hundreds of weights 1979 2005 2016 2022 Asymptotic transfer functions Hundreds of weights Input from previous and back 3 years Iterative process Red Training: Minimize variance Green Testing: Minimal variance -> Save weights Hundreds of transfer functions recursively created Blue: Recreate ENSO based on saved weights

Ap-index real and forecast

Input neuron data No ENSO data input in the neurons The gravitational tidal anomaly vector during lunar perigee – combined Lunar and solar tidal force. The latitude of that vector Solar wind data. Temperature, density and speed Earth’s magnetic field. Kp and Ap Influenced by the Sun No Ultraviolet lights. No long range data series

Randomness and ensembles Ensembles of 9 different setups of the neurons 9 runs with a mean value Random setups of neurons for each run

ENSO from 1980 to 2022

Zoomed in on 2014 to 2022

Current ENSO prediction Didn’t miss the recent El Niño, but missed the strength Current la Niña is now weak, but I expect it to strengthening and peek around Februari next year Return to high ENSO value with a peek early in 2018 ENSO high values in the coming years

Test period 2012,14,15

Correlations against derivation of global temperature anomaly SST 110.2% SW temp 26.3% ENSO 100% AMO 22.4% LOD 68.5% Ap Index 13.3% SW speed 49.5% SW density 9.7% SOI 45.8% GCR <0 Kp Index 27.4% PDO

Tidal forcing of ENSO I looked at tidal forcing at New Moon, Full Moon and Lunar Perigee. I got good correlations with tidal forcing at Lunar Perigee. I got best correlation against ENSO derivation in Lunar-solar tidal forcing during Perigee

Moon’s elliptical orbit The elliptical orbit of the Moon, 8,8 year cyclicity

Lunar Node 18.6 year periosity

Tidal force vector Each time Lunar Perigee happens, ENSO gets a pulse which size and direction is dependent on the size of tidal forcing and its latitude Lunar Perigee is correlated to the derivate value of ENSO (∆ENSO), while changes in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are correlated directly to the value of ENSO The Moon travels over 14 degrees each day during Perigee. Lunar Perigee Pulse changes appear chaotic in strength and angle from one pulse to the next

Percent variability The difference in the Lunar gravitational pull during high tide between Apogee and Perigee is about 60% During Lunar Perigee the impact from the Sun add an additional variability of about 30% to the gravitational pull

Pacific Ocean Currents

Kelvin Waves

Kelvin Waves and MJO Perigee happens every 27.5 day Kelvin Waves are generated in multiples of 27.5 days MJO area of enhanced convections moves counter clockwise in the tropics. Makes an orbit in 30 to 60 days When ENSO is positive and MJO is positive in the Kelvin Wave generation area (western pacific), Kelvin Waves are generated during westerly wind bursts

Kelvin Waves Kelvin Wave creates a tongue of warm water which moves east under the surface along the equator This water may resurface near South America This water may resurface west of the Galapagos This water may dissipate and never reach the surface MJO variation is probably driven by the same forces that is driving ENSO