Higher Education Forecast: February 5, 2019 | Session ID# T1.10 Higher Education Forecast: Changing Demographics and Demand Angela Brockelsby, Associate Vice Provost, NC State University Kim Reid, Principal Analyst, Eduventures Research | ACT | NRCCUA

Factors Affecting Demographics and Demand “Demographic, Economic and Cultural Disruption” ”Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008 Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups College going rates for different populations and the value of a college education Recruiting the Coming Demography Insights and student mindsets Findings from the Prospective Student Survey Strategies for reaching and connecting with access populations Demography is not destiny

“Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2018). National Vital Statistics Reports Volume 67, Number 8 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_08-508.pdf Source: Pew Research Center. (2011) In a Down Economy, Fewer Births http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2011/10/REVISITING-FERTILITY-AND-THE-RECESSION-FINAL.pdf

“Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2016) Knocking at the College Door https://knocking.wiche.edu/reports/ Source: Grawe, N. (2018). Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. https://people.carleton.edu/~ngrawe/HEDI.htm

Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups Source: Pew Research Center - Hispanic Trends. (2018). Facts on U.S. Immigrants, 2016. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/09/14/facts-on-u-s-immigrants/#fb-key-charts-arrivals

Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups Source: Pew Research Center (2018). Education levels of U.S. immigrants are on the rise. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/14/education-levels-of-u-s-immigrants-are-on-the-rise/ Source: Pew Research Center (2018). Key Findings about U.S. Immigrants. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/30/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants/

Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups Source: Frey, W. (2018). Diversity Explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America. https://www.brookings.edu/book/diversity-explosion-2/

Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups Source: Frey, W. (2018). Diversity Explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America. https://www.brookings.edu/book/diversity-explosion-2/

What does this mean for universities and colleges? 2-Year 4-Year Regional 4-Year National 4-Year Elite Source: Grawe, N. (2018). Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. https://people.carleton.edu/~ngrawe/HEDI.htm

Recruiting the Coming Demography

Demographic Shift Happening and Will Continue Change in Full-Time First-Time Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity 2010 - 2016 Mention the shift in Pell Eligible as well – Pull the number from Ipeds Mention the shift in first gen from Eduventures data? Is their a shift seen in our data? *American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander less than 1% change

Access Populations in Prospective Student Survey 43% 44% 41% 18% 10% 6% 7% 8% 9% Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

First Words – Non-Access Students Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

First Words – All Three Access Factors Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Prior Experience Highlight Support Opportunities Levels of High School Experience Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Pricing Frame Shifts Dramatically Acceptable Price Ranges by Access Status – Public and Private Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Expect Substantial Parental Support Financial Needs Far Different Expect Substantial Parental Support No Factors 55% All three factors 18% Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Financial Needs Far Different (cont.) Effect of Financial Aid Timing Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Access Students are Harder to Reach with Typical Communications Plans Search Strategies Source : Eduventures 2018 Student Sentiment Survey

Gen Z has Different Paths in Mind Career Experience Academic 21% 21% 15% 19% 13% 11% Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Demography is not Destiny Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

As Demography Shifts, Career Orientation Likely to Increase Student Mindsets by Access Status Access Factors: First generation college Low income Underrepresented minority Shall we color code these to the mindset above? I’m not convinced these are the most beautiful colors either (Dave?) Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

Opening Conversations Work in Phases with Students Mindsets Opening Conversations Blind Spots Opportunities for Support Brainstorm with your colleagues in our workshop

5 Take Aways for Working with the New Traditional Student Understand students on the deepest level possible, not just as a demographic subgroups, but also through mindsets For burgeoning “access” populations, put affordability issues front and center Lead messaging with three critical mindsets: Career Pragmatists, Experiential Interests, and Exploration and Meaning, but get to the individual level as soon as you can Sophisticated digital and social may stimulate some interest, but grass roots high school and community partnerships remain paramount for outreach to these students Take students on a personalized learning journey to support enrollment decision and provide guidance for a successful student enrollment