Matthew Friedman, Ames C. Grawert, and James Cullen. 2017 Matthew Friedman, Ames C. Grawert, and James Cullen. 2017. Crime Trends: 1990-2016. New York: Brennan Center for Justice

Matthew Friedman, Ames C. Grawert, and James Cullen. 2017 Matthew Friedman, Ames C. Grawert, and James Cullen. 2017. Crime Trends: 1990-2016. New York: Brennan Center for Justice

TRENDS Crime is DOWN Incarceration is UP Racial disparities are BIG

Why is Incarceration Up Did one cause the other? DISCUSSION Why is Crime Down? Why is Incarceration Up Did one cause the other? POSSIBLE IDEAS: Economic growth … but why no spike during the recession? And besides, growth is unequal Decline in alcohol consumption? Maybe, but we drink about as much booze as other countries but have way higher crime rates Maybe mass incarceration lowered rates? Evidence says effect is modest Maybe better and more police? Again, evidence is weak More guns? Evidence mixed Psychiatric pills Roe v Wade? Timing is off, and trend is observed in other countries Lead (in gas, esp)

Percentage of K-12 Students in a Physical Fight at School in the Past 12 Months, 1991-2017 Black White Latino Asian SOURCE: Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

Percentage of K-12 Students Bringing Weapon to School In the Past 30 Days, 1991-2015 Black Latino White Asian SOURCE: Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

There are 365 x 24 = 8,760 hours in a year. Kids spend 180 x 6.5 = 1,170 hours at school in a year. Thus kids spend 1,170/8,760 = 13.3% of a year at school. But only 2.6% of youth homicides happen at school. SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2016. Youth Violence: Facts at a Glance.

Percentage of K-12 Students Receiving Out-of-School Suspension, by Race, 2000-01 & 2013-14 Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of K-12 Students Expelled from School, by Race, 2000-01 & 2013-14 Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of K-12 Students Receiving Corporal Punishment, by Race, 2000-01 & 2013-14 Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of K-12 Students Receiving Out-of-School Suspension, by State, 2013-14 Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of K-12 Students Expelled from School, by State, 2013-14 Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of K-12 Students Subjected to Corporal Punishment, by State, 2013-14 None Source: Civil Rights Data Collection, U.S. Department of Education

Percentage of Schools with Any Security Staff, by Location of School Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005–06, 2009–10, and 2015–16 School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS), 2006, 2010, and 2016.

Percentage of Schools with Any Security Staff, by Size of School Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005–06, 2009–10, and 2015–16 School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS), 2006, 2010, and 2016.

Percentage of Schools with Any Security Staff, by Poverty Rate of School Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005–06, 2009–10, and 2015–16 School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS), 2006, 2010, and 2016.

Percentage of Schools with Any Security Staff, by Racial/Ethnic Composition of School Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005–06, 2009–10, and 2015–16 School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS), 2006, 2010, and 2016.

TRENDS School violence is DOWN Punishment is NOT DOWN Racial disparities are BIG

Why is School Violence Down? Why Has Punishment Stayed the Same? DISCUSSION Why is School Violence Down? Why Has Punishment Stayed the Same? Did one cause the other? POSSIBLE IDEAS: Focus on zero tolerance policies, reactions to them See both readings for today

DISCUSSION Why are there racial disparities?

Mini-Lesson on Statistical Control

Mean Height, by Weather People Have Recently Watched Pornographic Movies, 1972-2016 Yes, Watched Porn No, No Porn Total Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

Mean Height, by Weather People Have Recently Watched Pornographic Movies, 1972-2016 Yes, Watched Porn No, No Porn Total Men Women Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

High School Dropout Rate, by Race, 1972-2016 WHITE BLACK Total Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

High School Dropout Rate, Mother’s Education, and Family Income, by Race, 1972-2016 WHITE BLACK Total Mom: H.S. Dropout Family Income: Below Average Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

High School Dropout Rate, by Race, Mother’s Education, and Family Income, 1972-2016 WHITE BLACK Total Mom: H.S. Dropout, Low Income Mom: H.S. Grad., Mid Income Mom: College Grad., High Income Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

High School Dropout Rate, by Race, Mother’s Education, and Family Income, 1972-2016 WHITE BLACK Total Mom: H.S. Dropout, Low Income Mom: H.S. Grad., Mid Income Mom: College Grad., High Income Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

High School Dropout Rate, by Race, Mother’s Education, and Family Income, 1972-2016 WHITE BLACK Total Mom: H.S. Dropout, Low Income Mom: H.S. Grad., Mid Income Mom: College Grad., High Income Source: 1972-2016 U.S. General Social Surveys

DISCUSSION Blacks are more likely than whites to drop out of high school Most of that relationship is due to family social and economic circumstances Interpret

What Does This Have to Do with School Discipline and Punishment?

45 elementary schools Behavior does not explain race gap in punishment

ECLS-K All of gap explained by prior problem behavior WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Data on all students/schools in “a large midwestern state” multilevel examination of the relative contributions of infraction, student, and school characteristics to rates of and racial disparities in out-of-school suspension and expulsion Type of infraction; race, gender, and to a certain extent socioeconomic status at the individual level; and, at the school level, mean school achievement, percentage Black enrollment, and principal perspectives all contributed to the probability of out-of-school suspension or expulsion For racial disparities, however, school-level variables, including principal perspectives on discipline, appear to be among the strongest predictors