Climate change impacts on species and Protected Areas: what is PARCC doing? Neil Burgess Scientific Advisor

Part I Background on the region and existing data on climate change, demographics etc

Vegetation zones in West Africa Sahara desert Sahelian savanna Sudanian savanna Guinea savanna Rainforest Mangroves Vegetation zones move according to climate Sea level rises under climate change

What do the climate change models say? Quite a variable story of change Things might get worse –Quite a lot –Or not so much –Or we are not very sure

Demographic change in West Africa 1960 and predicted to 2020

Climate Change impacts – general considerations West Africa climate change predictions very variable. All agree it will get hotter. Predictions for rainfall vary from 0% to +40% for Dec-Feb and from -20% to +20% for the June to August season. Vegetation zones (Sahara, Sahel, Sudanian, Guinea, Forest) will expand north if the climate gets wetter, and contract south if it gets drier Forest species and protected areas may suffer, especially on northern margins and in Guinea savanna / forest mosaic People will be moving in the landscape

Part 2 How will climate change in West Africa impact species in the region? And protected areas?

8 Identification of risks to PAs as a consequence of CC Planning for adaptive measures to minimise risks BETTER UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGEMENT OF PROTECTED AREAS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Vulnerability to climate change assessments and risk reduction strategies Gap analysis and spatial planning Climate modelling Data collection Review of management approaches Connectivity, species and community assessments Communication Knowledge Management Monitoring and Evaluation Communication Knowledge Management Monitoring and Evaluation Training Pilot corridors and trans- boundary PAs Policy support Training Pilot corridors and trans- boundary PAs Policy support Guidelines on managing PAs Monitoring tool to track future impacts THE PARCC PROJECT

CORE C C C C C C T T T T T T

IUCN Traits Based Approach to assessing Climate Change Susceptibility of species – Birds Biological Susceptibility Exposure

Species Distribution Modelling approach to assessing direction of movement due to climate change- birds

Linking model results to protected areas to show how much changes can be expected in West Africa Turnover of species - blue is low Little change predicted in West Africa % change in species

What have we done? Improved collation of climate data in the region (Hadley Center) Improved knowledge of distribution ranges of species (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish) (IUCN and BirdLife) Improved IUCN red listing for species in the region (IUCN) Improved protected areas data for the region (UNEP- WCMC, IUCN) Modeling impacts of climate change on species, and protected areas (in progress) (Durham) Bringing results together to measure impacts on protected areas Build capacity nationally and regionally Link results to policy process and pilot projects in target countries

Capacity building and partnerships Example - Climate Change Vulnerability Traits for species: collaborative workshops

Part 3: How well are protected areas managed to respond to climate change challenges

GEF projects use the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT)

Protected Area data and management effectiveness data are contained within the UNEP-WCMC World Database of Protected Areas – a freely available resource for the world

Application of the Management Effectiveness Tool Reserves with management effectiveness assessed (2009) In West Africa We know there are more than this

Project work on protected area management for climate change? All METT data from the region have been compiled and are entered into a database, and analyses have been made The METT tool has been modified to include Climate Change impacts The new METT tool has been tested to assess effectiveness of management and preparation for climate change impacts (The Gambia and Togo) Needs to be mainstreamed into national processes.

Data collation on climate, species, threats, protected areas together with nations and experts complete IUCN traits based analysis of climate impacts on species complete IUCN Red listing of species complete Species distribution modelling broadly complete Last 2 years of project will change focus from data and analysis, to bringing results to the region and working with countries and others to embed results. Including working together on landuse planning approaches Conclusions