Online Grocery Shopping to Enter Mainstream Sooner Than Expected Both 2016 research from Nielsen and 2018 research from Coresight Research indicate approximately 23% of all consumers surveyed had purchase groceries online during the past year. Nielsen had estimated $20.5 billion in 2016 online grocery sales while the more-recent total from Coresight Research was $23 billion, which was just 2.4% of total food and beverage retail sales for 2018, an almost $1-trillion market. A January 2018 joint report from Food Marketing Institute and Nielsen forecasts online grocery shopping will total approximately $100 billion by 2022 or 2024, with as many as 70% of all consumers doing some grocery shopping online.

Retailers Already Cornering the Market Although 59.5% of consumers who responded to a 2018 Coresight Research survey said they had bought groceries online from Amazon during the past 12 months, Walmart, which was only 25.5% of those respondents, has the advantage of thousands of stores. Some analysts think this could be Amazon’s Achilles heel, at least during the short term, because as an e-commerce “pure player,” Amazon can only offer consumers limited delivery and pickup options. Walmart’s current advantage for more convenient pickup is why 25% of consumers responding to a 2018 Field Agent survey said they buy fresh groceries from Walmart, compared to 5% for Amazon, which scored lower than Target, 10%, and Jet.com, 8%.

Who’s Buying Groceries Online According to the 2018 Coresight Research survey, adults 30–44 were the largest age group, or 28.3%, who had bought groceries online during the past 12 months; followed by adults 45–60, 22.6%; adults 18– 29, 21.0%; and adults, 60+, 19.8%. Valassis reported in a Q3 2017 survey 20% of Millennials with children ordered “groceries online from a local grocer and pick them up from the store” once a week, with all parents, 17%, and all Millennials, 14%. Of the respondents to the Coresight Research survey, 32.2% expect online grocery orders to be delivered for free; 29.2% are willing to pay as much as 5%; 19.7%, as much as $10; 3.3%, as much as 15%; and 3.5%, more than 15%.

Online Grocery Shopping Insights The Coresight Research survey also revealed 38.4% of consumers said they shopped for just a small amount of groceries online, with some, 14%; most, 8.5%; all or almost all, 5.8%; and almost none, 33.3%. The Field Agent survey found Amazon generated the most loyalty, with a score of 6.8 on a 10-point scale, with Target, 5.5; Walmart, 4.6; and Jet.com, 4.4. Packaged non-fresh food was the #1 grocery category consumers purchased online during the last 12 months, at 65.1%; followed by toiletries/personal care products/diapers, 58.9%; and household cleaning and paper products, 57.9%.

Drivers of Consumer Reluctance Data from multiple surveys generally agree why consumers are still reluctant to shop groceries online. In a February 2018 RichRelevance survey, 53.7% of respondents said they don’t trust others to select the best or freshest items. An April 2018 report from The NPD Group stated 46% of those respondents who have never shopped online or have stopped doing so said browsing the aisles in- store helped them to remember items they needed. A May 2018 Morning Consult survey of 2,000 US adults found 55% are still very satisfied with what their local grocery stores offer. Respondents also said they don’t buy groceries online because of convenience, 8%, and cost, 7%.

Many Grocers Not Prepared According to Progressive Grocer’s 85th Annual Report of the Grocery Industry, almost a third, or 32.7%, of participating grocers don’t offer omnichannel services, which is a major barrier to competing with Amazon and Walmart for online shoppers. Less than a third offered click-and-collect, 31.8%; third- party home delivery, 31.8%; drive-up collection sites, 30.8%; and store-supported home delivery, 28.0%. According to Field Agent, consumers said the four online grocery sites performed best in these categories: Amazon, delivery speed, 72%; Walmart, price (not sales/promos), 53%; Target, sales/promos/coupons, 39%; Jet.com, price (not sales/promos), 50%.

Advertising Strategies Local, independent grocers may not be able to compete head-to-head with Amazon, Walmart, etc., but they can grab a larger share of the click-and-collect market by adding and aggressively marketing third- party home delivery and drive-up collection sites. Local, independent grocers can counter the increasing use of online grocery shopping by emphasizing in their advertising why in-store shopping helps customers remember items they need, which increases their grocery basket of purchases. Based on the table at the bottom of page 2 of the Profiler, grocers should feature the items consumers don’t purchase online (those with negative numbers), such as beverages, chilled prepared foods, baked goods, fresh dairy and meat and fruits and vegetables.

New Media Strategies As local grocers add third-party home delivery and similar services, they should create videos explaining how the services work, their benefits and testimonials of customers who have used these services, and why. It’s time for local grocers to have a custom app and use it to offer coupons/discounts that cause customers to choose in-store shopping over online grocery shopping. Local grocers can conduct their own polls/surveys regularly, asking why customers prefer to shop in- store versus online and how much they enjoy the in- store shopping experience.