Contribution of the Netherlands to research on the global water cycle Han Dolman Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Expected changes in the water system 1 3 4 2 6 5 Expected changes in the water system See level rise Salinization More rainfall in shorter time; longer dry spells Increasing river discharges; low flow problems Less storage and infiltration Land Subsidence

Conflicts seem inevitable: challenges But at same time less space for water : Urbanization, agriculture, nature, etc. claim space Citizens want safe and nice living environment, no nuisance Hardly any multiple land use; water not used as spatial planning factor Values of water hardly known and recognized in governmental decision making Planning and decision making slow, incomprehensible, intransparant Conflicts seem inevitable: challenges

New paradigm Elements e.g. No longer: KEEPING THE WATER OUT But: ACCOMMODATING THE WATER Elements e.g. Retain water: Hold it back, slow it down and than release it / make wise use of it (sustainable) Make space for water / water oriented land use planning Recognise and handle the many values of water Make use of natural processes

Three current initiatives Dutch Science Foundation (NWO) Bsik Knowledge investment programs Living with water Climate for Space Reconnaissance Dutch Royal Academy of sciences

Theme ‘Water’ water systems at different spatial and temporal scales, such as the hydrological cycle as a whole, river systems and coastal zones. Scope fundamental Global Change science

Scope and challenges water and the earth system: water cycle, meteorology, clouds ecohydrology 2. global change and aquatic ecosystems water and society

Cross cutting themes diversity, heterogeneity, variability - non-linearity, thresholds, boundaries - vulnerability, resilience and adaptation

Current state 155 preproposals; 29 selected 14 will be funded Total funding 3+2 MEuro

Climate changes Spatial Planning Klimaat voor Ruimte (KvR)

Mission Climate as a multidisciplinary knowldege question Climate are guiding principle for spatial planning Public private partnerships Stakeholder involvement with scientific excellence Improving dutch competitiveness

Climate scenario’s Boundary conditions Output on command & Climate data Key processes Refence climate and validation

Development policy support tools Adaptation Development policy support tools 1. Scenario’s 2. Mitigation 4.Scenario’s & dialogue

Living with Water A programme for Knowledge development and dissemination

Scientific challenges Mix of natural sciences with economy, sociology, governance, management, legislation, … Fusion of technical and non-technical aspects in Living with Water Make non-technical aspects tangible for decision making process Provide (quantified) information on non-technical aspects

Scientific challenges (2) Collective responsibility of involved scientists, practical water managers, contractors and consultants Use the Netherlands as a laboratory Joint learning process in new alliances and consortia

KNAW (Netherland Royal Academy of Sciences) reconnaisance study Define hydrology as an earth Science, and identify challenges Three themes Geoecosystems and hydrology Climate and hydrology Geoenvironment and hydrology

Geoenvironment Interaction surface water and ground water Multiphase flow and transport Density dependent flow (salt intrusion) interaction with chemistry of the geology Reactive solute transport,

GeoEcosystems Patterns and complexity in landscapes Ecological controls on flow patterns How does heterogeneity evolve (self organization?) How does resilience evolve in landscapes? Feedbacks between land, biogeochemistry and climate Interaction land use change and hydrology vs resilience What is the required level of complexity for ES models How does hydrology interact with biogeochemical cycles?

Climate and hydrology Detection is the HC speeding up? Impacts Runoff, evaporation, precipitation Impacts hydrology of large river basins Paleohydrology Understanding the nature of drought Feedbacks Complexity, heterogeneity and feedbacks Groundwater, soil moisture atmosphere feedbacks