Economy Workforce Trends Presented to Strategic Planning Team September 21, 2007 by Bob Bendotti, Lori Espinoza, Patti Marsh Mary Lou Mosley & Laurel Smith

C. Information Technology D. Education E. Public Safety I. Industry Sectors - Center for Workforce Development http://www.maricopa.edu/bwd/ A. Health Services B. Business Services C. Information Technology D. Education E. Public Safety

I. Industry Sectors A. Health Services • The nursing shortage in Arizona continues to be worse than in most other states and will be long-term. • Over 1/2 of the fastest growing occupations nationwide in the next decade will be in the health services sector. • The elderly population will grow faster than the total population between 2000 and 2010 increasing the demand for health services.

I. Industry Sectors B. Business Services • Between 2001 and 2005 the total employment in the Greater Phoenix area increased 11%. - Management consulting increased 50% - Commercial banks increased 37% - Consumer lending - 43% - Investment advising - 41% - Legal services - 16% • Business Services occupations often require specialized training, certification, or licensing.

I. Industry Sectors C. Information Technology • Demand for IT services occupations in Greater Phoenix are expected to increase in the coming years. • Between 2003 & 2013 employment in Greater Phoenix is projected to grow for occupations, such as network systems and data communications analysts - 50.7%, etc. • In the greater Phoenix region, the majority of IT services firms are small to medium in size. Approximately 83% of firms employ fewer than 50 workers, but these firms account for only 21% of employment. Larger firms with 50 or more workers, comprise the balance of employment in the industry sector.

I. Industry Sectors D. Education • Compared to current employment levels between 2003 & 2013, the AZ Dept. of Economic Security expects the Greater Phoenix region to need: - 33% more pre-school teachers - 41% more kindergarten teachers - 29% more elementary school teachers - 22% more middle school teachers - 32% more secondary school teachers - Over 43% more special education teachers at all K-12 levels

I. Industry Sectors E. Public Safety • The region’s fast population growth will require large numbers of additional public safety workers in the years to come. • Compared to current levels, between 2003 & 2013 the AZ Dept. of Economic Security expects the Greater Phoenix region to need: - 52% more emergency medical technicians - 43% more correctional officers - 37% more police & sheriff’s officers - 36% more detectives & criminal investigators - 33% more fire fighters - 31% more forensic science technicians - 28% more supervisors & managers for all of these professions

II. Broad Base Trends in Employment A. Employment Trends - Relationship Between Educational Attainment & Earnings • College Education Boosts Paychecks/Annual Pay - High School graduates can boost their average annual pay by 1/3 by spend a year in college to earn an occupational certificate or two years to get an associate degree. • College Education Employment Rate - Employment rate for AZ grads with a year or two of college is higher: 75% compared with 63% for those who finished only high school.

II. Broad Base Trends in Employment A. Employment Trends - Increasing Attainment Requirement For Entry & Advancement • An Associate or bachelor’s degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. • Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 5 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth.

II. Broad Base Trends in Employment A. Employment Trends - Aging - The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-and-older group projected to grow by 49.1%. - Youths - those between 16 & 24 will decline in numbers and lose share of labor force, from 15.1% in 2004 to 13.7% in 2014. - The Greater Phoenix metropolitan area workforce is currently the third youngest nation-wide.

II. Broad Base Trends in Employment A. Employment Trends - The Hispanic Population • 2006 Census report shows that the Hispanic population continues to trail the overall U.S. population, both in educational attainment and earnings. • 2006 U.S. census reports that Hispanics 15 years and older are less likely to earn a baccalaureate degree than Non-Hispanic whites. • Non-Hispanic whites out earn Hispanics at every educational achievement level with the exception of the doctoral degree. - By 2014 the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 25.8 million, due to faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates and increased immigration levels.

Broad Base Trends in Employment B. Employment Trends • In 2007, Greater Phoenix is anticipated to be in the top 5 Metropolitan areas in terms of major market growth. Nearly 60,000 jobs are expected to be created. • 9 of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer information technology occupations. • From a workforce standpoint, the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area is projected to continue to grow by 70% by 2030 and is currently the 3rd youngest metropolitan region nationwide (of populations 2 million or more) • This could be opening opportunities for people to return to school, change of career path, or finally get that unfinished degree.

III. Broad Base Trends in Economics B. Economic Trends • Gap Between “Haves and Have Nots” - The gap between rich and poor is widening faster in Arizona than any other state, and Arizona ranks 4th for the size of the disparity. - By being affordable, MCCCD can be accessible to 20% of poorest communities - Scholarships - special funds made available.

III. Broad Base Trends in Economics B. Economic Trends • Downturn in Housing Market While Commercial Real Estate Grows - Sales of the residential market has hit an all time low.

III. Broad Base Trends in Economics B. Economic Trends • Impact of Immigration Policy in Workforce • 3+1 and 2+2 Educational Partnerships • Competition Between Educational Providers • Involving Sectors Requiring “Intellectual Capital” • Local, Regional & International