VERIFICATION – DAY 3 - 71 (noon) - 74 (high) - CLD: 2.5/10

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 68 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED.

NAM MODEL FCST – 500 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED.

VERIFICATION – DAY 3 - 71 (noon) - 74 (high) - CLD: 2.5/10 RADAR LOOP VERIFICATION – DAY 3 - 71 (noon) - 74 (high) - CLD: 2.5/10 - torn reports = yes And the winners are …

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED. SVR. WX. TRIANGLE

SPC MESO

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3 - EWALL

Cloud top Height ? (50,000 ft. vs. 20,000 ft.) 500 mb -15C -10C -15C

Cyclogenesis

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3 - EWALL

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – 700 mb map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 8 p.m. (00z) THR.

GFS MODEL FCST – Precip. From 2 pm to 8 pm

MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends

RISING AIR = CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Ways to produce rising motion: FRONTS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS MOUNTAINS (ORAGRAPHY) CONVECTION