Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis Hartnell College Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis May 2018

Summary Welcome About Environmental Scan Program Demand Gap Analysis Key Takeaways

Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis About This Study Environmental Scan & Program Demand Gap Analysis Environmental Scan What does the regional economy look like in terms of occupations, industries, and the community? Program Demand Gap Analysis Where is Hartnell meeting the needs of the community and what opportunities are there to expand?

Economic Overview An examination of the industries and occupations within Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties.

About the Regional Economy Largest Industries in Monterey County Many industries will see significant growth over the next decade, thus we would expect to see demand for the college’s programs to continue to grow. Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

About the Regional Economy Unique Industries (LQ) in Monterey County Seven industries are large employers and have high LQ’s, an indication that the region has a comparative advantage or specialization in certain industry: • Local Government • Support Activities for Agriculture & Forestry • Crop Production • Social Assistance • Federal Government • Accommodation • Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

About the Regional Economy Educational Attainment in Monterey County The region has a significant Hispanic population with less than a high school diploma. This population grew significantly over the past decade. Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

About the Regional Economy Population Growth in Monterey County Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

About the Regional Economy Economic Characteristic's Monterey County Median Household Income Poverty Rate Unemployment Rate Monterey County $60,889 12.3% 6.9% Big Sur CCD $61,972 3.1% 6.2% Carmel-by-the-Sea CCD $93,529 2.4% 3.6% Carmel Valley CCD $91,741 4.7% 7.0% Castroville CCD $62,463 10.8% 8.7% Gonzales CCD $53,263 19.3% 3.9% Greenfield CCD $47,826 21.3% 9.2% King City CCD $43,559 22.5% 8.5% Pajaro CCD $65,861 11.8% Salinas CCD $53,323 16.1% 7.2% San Ardo CCD $53,224 10.3% 8.2% Seaside-Monterey CCD $65,405 7.4% 5.9% Soledad CCD $53,342 15.1% 7.6% Toro Park CCD $123,225 0.5% 4.3% Source: 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

About the Regional Economy Commuting Patterns in Monterey County Commuting patterns demonstrate the interaction one region has with surrounding ones. As demonstrated in the graphic: 53,247 people employed in Monterey County but living outside 98,618 People living and employed in Monterey County 48,684 people living in Monterey County but employed outside Source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), Census Bureau

About the Regional Economy Top Net In-Commuters in Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties SOC Description 2017 Jobs 2017 Resident Workers 2017 Net Commuters 45-2000 Agricultural Workers 45,870 35,261 10,609 55-9000 Military occupations 5,941 4,544 1,397 25-3000 Other Teachers and Instructors 4,318 3,621 697 25-2000 Preschool, Primary, Secondary, and Special Education School Teachers 6,984 6,421 563 53-3000 Motor Vehicle Operators 5,954 467 49-9000 Other Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 4,133 3,885 248 51-3000 Food Processing Workers 1,472 1,226 246 33-3000 Law Enforcement Workers 2,429 2,218 211 45-1000 Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers 1,294 1,142 152 25-9000 Other Education, Training, and Library Occupations 2,757 2,630 127 Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

About the Regional Economy Top Net Out-Commuters in Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey Counties SOC Description 2017 Jobs 2017 Resident Workers 2017 Net Commuters 35-3000 Food and Beverage Serving Workers 10,636 12,257 -1,621 15-1100 Computer Occupations 2,518 3,697 -1,179 41-2000 Retail Sales Workers 13,207 13,948 -741 35-2000 Cooks and Food Preparation Workers 5,370 6,099 -729 13-1000 Business Operations Specialists 4,559 5,268 -709 39-9000 Other Personal Care and Service Workers 3,487 4,053 -566 17-2000 Engineers 908 1,428 -520 43-9000 Other Office and Administrative Support Workers 4,311 4,795 -484 43-5000 Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, and Distributing Workers 5,174 5,656 -482 35-9000 Other Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers 2,519 2,988 -469 Source: Emsi Employees & Self-Employed 2018.1.

Program Demand Gap Analysis The program demand gap analysis compares the regional job demand to current program offerings and reveals potential areas of expansion or contraction. Demand is defined as the average annual openings from 2017-2027, for the educational level the program trains for and below. Supply is the average number of program completers, as reported to IPED’s over a three year period. The difference between these figures represents the “gap” or “surplus.”

Opportunities: Certificate Level Source: Emsi program demand gap model. *Certificate is an award of less that two years at Hartnell College.

Opportunities: Associate Level Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

Opportunities: Associates for Transfer Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

Note on Market Oversupply Excess supply is not necessarily an indication that your program needs to scale back. However, it does indicate that you should investigate these programs to ensure your graduates are finding employment. Your graduates could be in demand while graduates of other programs may have a harder time finding employment.

Potential Programs An examination of occupations not currently being trained for by Hartnell College’s current programs.

Potential Programs: Certificate Level Occupation by Gap

Potential Programs: Associate Level Occupation by Gap Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

Potential Programs: Associates for Transfer Occupation by Gap Source: Emsi program demand gap model.

Key Takeaways Agriculture is abundant throughout the region. Many jobs in agriculture industries may be seasonal or for have wages below what the college would want to train for. There are multiple areas where the college could increase the number of graduates. Some potential programs to expand could include welding, business, and automotive programs. The region has a large population with less than a high school degree and within the area there a large swaths of poverty. The college’s programs and accessibility should reflect these issues. Hartnell should consider introducing programs or curriculum that could train students for supervisory roles, dental hygienists, and teachers.

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