Some lessons from SMIP2?

History of SMIP2 SMIP2 - 1st and 2nd season potential predictability - AGCM using observed SST and sea-ice - initialize from reanalysis SMIP2/HFP - 1st season actual predictive skill in operational context – no information from the future - 2-tier forecast or 1-tier forecast with coupled system - initialized from reanalyses

Why SMIP2 New knowledge on SP Intercomparison of models in the SP context Measures of potential and/or actual “predictability” in current models Diagnostic subprojects to entrain “outside expertise” to analyze results Collection of results for research into multi-model methods (forerunner/prototype/precursor/exemplar of TFSP 1st Experiment)

Basics

Declared participants and data

Participation Modest participation despite efforts to recruit Reasons…? - problem not of interest - lack of a clear output (i.e. compare IPCC) - funding - timing/other priorities - organizational support

Some problems Scientific interest - SMIP2 was much like SMIP1 - SMIP2/HFP tried to broaden but perhaps too late - no specific scientific output such as an analysis/Report Data/organizational support - PCMDI commitment to central data repository weak … organizational changes + IPCC - IRI commitment modest - passive rather than active data collection Other commitments – espc. IPCC

Funding/competing priorities CliPAS/APCC CliPAS/APCC funded project able to attract participants funded Workshops (IPRC) active data collection

Lessons for future WGSIP projects Clear scientific goal - includes commitment to basic analysis and a Report - diagnostic subproject support Clear data policy - IPCC shows the virtue of a “dedicated” data repository - active data policy of “recruiting” data is preferred - otherwise KISS including amount of data Funding - commitment of funding a major asset - research, workshops, etc. Organizational support - Website, Workshop(s) etc

End of lesson