Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011

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Presentation transcript:

Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011 COIN and Afghanistan Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011

JCS options (13-15 Sept) (a) cruise missile attacks; (b) longer bombing campaign; (c) large-scale invasion CIA Plan: money, SOF + airpower

US demands Hand over leaders of al-Qaeda Close all terrorist camps Give US full access to verify closure Release all foreign nationals held captive Protect foreigners (including aid workers) President Bush statement to Joint Session of Congress, 20 September 2011

Balance of forces Coalition Enemy SOF 300-500 Al Qaeda 2-3,000 Western troops 3-5,000 Taliban 60,000 Northern Alliance 15,000

Operation Enduring Freedom Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct 2001). US/UK special forces supported Northern Alliance offensive in northern Afghanistan (late Oct – Nov 2001). US/UK-led land offensive in southern Afghanistan (Dec 2001 – July 2002).

Campaign milestones Mazar-e-Sharif (10 Nov) Kabul (13 Nov) Konduz (26 Nov) Kandahar (6 Dec) Tora Bora (17 Dec) Paktia (March, May)

Political development UN Bonn Conference, Dec 2001 Transitional Authority up to mid 2002 Loya Jirga elects Hamid Karzai as President, June 2002 Presidential elections, 2004 and 2009 Parliamentary elections, 2005 and 2010

Campaign incoherence

Operational Progress Protect the population ANSF development Growth of sub-national governance Military momentum

CIVCAS (2009-Oct 2010) Total ISAF/ANSF Non-adjusted Stable Down 20% Reduced Down 50%

ANSF numbers Target: Oct 2010 Actual: 24 Sept 2010 ANA 134,000 139,000 ANP 109,000 122,000

Not perfect but popular

The best counterinsurgents?

Goverment-in-a-box?

Sub-national governance 80+ KTD District Delivery Prog: 14 of 80 by Sept 2010 NSP + ASOP producing results

Evidence of progress

Obama’s War

Main effort: the South March 2009 Feb 2010 RC-N 5,080 7,500 RC-W 2,940 5,500 RC-C 5,740 5,000 RC-E 25,570 26,500 RC-S 22,330 54,500

Op MOSHTARAK

Strategic obstacles Government corruption NATO war-weariness Insurgent safe havens in Pakistan

Fall in public support (%) Country 2009 2010 United States 55 40 United Kingdom 42 37 Germany 30 France 32

The Transition Strategy

Most likely scenario “Continued operational progress is most unlikely to produce desired strategic outcomes.”

Relearning the principles of COIN Political-led campaign Population = COG Isolate the insurgent Operate within the law Minimum use of force