Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? (A)

A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England) --Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly --Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

Malthus’ Point of Crisis

Neo-Malthusians Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought: 1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology 2. new population “stripping” world of resources Paul Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. (Said England would die by 2000, world would undergo world-wide famine- millions would starve to death, advocated luxury taxes on diapers and forced sterilization for men with more than 3 kids) No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts? Ehrlich said that resources are finite, increased consumption will lead to depletion of those resources

Critics of Malthus (Copeland) Resources are not fixed: -Trade allows for potential elimination of possibilism Lack of food resulted from distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food Population growth can stimulate economic growth Copeland-”More people=more consumers, more creativity”

Population Part IV: Demographic Transition (B)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

Demographic Transition - Stage 1 Hunter-gatherer society in some areas, Agricultural Revolution in others- population fluctuations depended on supply of meat and vegetation and harvest. High Birth Rate High Death Rate Epidemics and plagues Famine War Low Natural Increase Rate Stationary population growth

Demographic Transition - Stage 1 Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

Demographic Transition - Stage 2 Continued High Birth Rate Declining Death Rate Divided into Two Parts: 1) Industrial Revolution 2) Medical Revolution High Natural Increase Rate-Why? High expanding population growth *England experienced this first because they experienced the Industrial Revolution first. Therefore, the enclosure movement in England was a characteristic of this stage.

Demographic Transition - Stage 2 Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s European colonization brought medical advancements Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

Demographic Transition - Stage 3 Declining Birth Rate Urbanization Wealth Education Contraceptives Increased status of women Low Death Rate Low Natural Increase Rate Slow expanding population growth

Demographic Transition - Stage 3 Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Morocco ***most developing countries

Demographic Transition - Stage 4 Low Birth Rate Low TFR Women highly involved in education and workforce Low Death Rate Low to no Natural Increase Rate Stationary Population Growth This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

Demographic Transition - Stage 4 Current Examples ***Most developed countries (United States, Argentina, Australia, United Kingdom, France, Ireland)

Demographic Transition-Stage 5 Fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level Elderly population > Youth population What does Stage 5 look like on the DTM? Examples of Stage 5 countries (negative NIR) : Croatia, Estonia, Japan, Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ukraine, Denmark, Russia , Canada, Germany

DTM Limitations Doesn’t include the effects of immigration, EXCEPTIONS DEPENDENT UPON CITIZENSHIP STATUS Can’t predict how long stages will last Non-applicable to some countries where wealth and information access are limited.