Cliff Mass and David Ovens

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Presentation transcript:

Cliff Mass and David Ovens Consortium February 2019 Cliff Mass and David Ovens

Computers Moved and Everything Stable

Some Problems Resolved Problem Node Fixed and Returned Into Cluster Government shut-down issues fixed (we lost our feed for the NOAA/NWS RAP grids) The latter degraded our initial conditions and ability to start with low clouds in eastern WA. Now back to normal Fixed and updated the meteogram, time-height, and sounding generators.

Ensemble Expansion: Initial Stage Complete: Both 0000 and 1200 UTC Cycles Operational 4-km deterministic from operational GFS 10 members from the GFS ensemble system (GEFS) 5 additional members driven by Canadian, UKMET, Australian, Japanese, and Navy Global Models All ready by approximately 8 AM, 8 PM

Stage 2: Expansion During the next few months, we will add physics uncertainty, using stochastic physics options. Will also add a run with more vertical layers. Will start with 5 additional runs each cycle. Create new, ensemble-based products.

Improved Land Use in Model Moved from 15 arcsecond vs 30 arcsecond, MODIS landuse dataset To improve it further, Dave completed some additional manual editing of cells in Western Washington

Does Improve Land use Improve Forecasts? One Case

We got a problem that needs to be fixed: too intense inversions and too cold over snow in western WA during the morning

Will diagnose and fix this issue asap

Major Model Update Move from 3.7.1 to 4.0.3 Lots of bug fixes and improvements Is about 5% faster Change to hybrid vertical coordinate system Less spurious upper tropospheric noise

WRF Hybrid Coordinate System The previous sigma-p vertical coordinate distorts surfaces above terrain. Can produce upper tropospheric noise, The hybrid system flattens out the surfaces aloft, damping the orographic signal.

3.7.1 versus 4.03 3.7.1 is now 3 years behind We tested 3.8 and 3.9 extensively and there was no significant improvements. Now testing 4.0.3 extensively with the new hybrid coordinate system. If it is at least at good and at least as stable, we should probably switch, at the very least for the speed-up potential

Convection Seems to Be Revved Up More 3.7.1 4.0.3

The End