SA Economic Indicators Report updated: April 2016 Next update: May 2016 SA Economic Indicators

SA Economic Indicators What is the SA Economic Indicators report? Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month. How to read this report Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay. Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months. e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015 GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015) Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.

SA Economic Indicators Index Economic Growth (GDP) ..………….…………………………………………………………………………… 4 Merchandise Exports/Imports ..………….……………………………………………………………………… 6 Exchange Rate ..………….………………………………………………………………………………….…… 9 Input Prices ..………….………………………………………………………………………………….……….. 12 Inflation ..………….……………………………………………………………………………………….….…… 22 Interest Rates ..………….………………………………………………………………………………..….…… 27 Employment ..………….…………………………………………………………………………………….……. 29 Household Debt………….………….………………………………….…………………………………………. 31 Consumer Confidence ..………….………………………………………………………………………………. 33 Retail Sales ..………….……………………………………………………………………………………..……. 35

SA Economic Indicators Employment Rates Employment remains relatively flat NOTES: 1. Not Economically Active means students, home-makers, the sick or disabled, those too old or young to work and discouraged work seekers (those who are involuntarily unemployed) 2. Labour Force is those either in work or actively seeking paid employment and available to start work SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – May, Q2 – August; Q3 – October, Q4 – February

SA Economic Indicators Employment COMMENTARY Unemployment decreased in Q4/2015 to 24.5% (from 25.5% Q3/2015), the lowest rate in 2015 The expanded definition of unemployment decreased to 33.8% in Q4/2015 (34.4% Q3/2015) An estimated 5.19 million are looking for work, while as many as 8.19 million people (expanded def.) are unemployed From 2008 – 2015, the expanded rate has been higher than the official unemployment rate This indicates growing discouragement among people looking for work Between Q3/2015 and Q4/2015: Labour force decreased by 36,000 Employment increased 190,000 Unemployment decreased 225,000 Not economically active increased 194,000, of which discouraged job-seekers increased 52,000 Employment in the formal sector has increased for three consecutive quarters, while the informal sector has reported its first decline in seven quarters Jobs were created in the formal sector in finance and other business services, trade and community & social services Job losses were recorded in the formal sector in the manufacturing, utilities and construction Job losses were recorded in the informal sector in the construction, manufacturing and community & social services industries Note: Unemployment: Aged 15 – 64 without work and actively seeking. Expanded definition: includes all those who desire employment regardless of whether they are actively seeking it.

Maryla Masojada. |. Head Analyst Tarryn Butler. | Maryla Masojada | Head Analyst Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst