Population Dynamics Lecture II.

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Presentation transcript:

Population Dynamics Lecture II

Population Change Occurs by: Births Deaths Immigration Emigration We will focus on births and deaths and assume for a while that migration is insignificant.

Population Growth Measures Percent Rate of Change (crude birth rate – crude death rate) x 100 Crude Birth Rate = Annual Births/Midyear Population Crude Death Rate = Annual Deaths/Midyear Population 1991 in United States: crude birth rate was 17/1000/yr = .017/yr crude death rate was 9/1000/yr = .009/yr (.017 - .009) x100 = .8%/yr

Population Growth Measures Percent Rate of Change Range in U.S. has been .8% - 1.0% per year With population of about 300, million this means growth of 2.4 to 3.0 million each year excluding immigration.

Population Growth Measures Percent Rate of Change (crude birth rate – crude death rate) x 100 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The number of offspring born to the average woman during her lifetime. TFR is sum of age specific fertility rates (ASFR) ASFRx = Annual births to women age x / Midyear female population age x

Age Specific Fertility Rates Births 2000 Women ASFR 15-19 453,725 9,668,183 .0469 20-24 1,021,627 9,162,263 .1115 25-29 1,058,265 8,855,417 .1195 30-34 942,697 9,889,775 .0953 35-39 451,723 11,087,196 .0407 40-44 92,813 11,473,332 .0080 45-49 5,083 10,202,481 .0005 15-49 4,025,933 70,338,647 .0572 General Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate Ages ASFR 5 yr Total Cum Sum 15-19 .0469 .2345 20-24 .1115 .5575 .7920 25-29 .1195 .5975 1.3895 30-34 .0953 .4765 1.8660 35-39 .0407 .2035 2.0695 40-44 .0080 .0400 2.1095 45-49 .0005 .0025 2.1120 TFR(2000) =

U.S. Total Fertility Rate 1810 - 1997 Source:ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT 1997, University of St. Louis Missouri

Population Age Distribution U.S. Census Bureau - Population Pyramids Population Age Distribution The age distribution of a population reflects past fertility and survival patterns. Population pyramids are snapshots of population age distributions. Cambodia - 1998

Population Age Distribution

Population Age Distribution South Africa - 1996

Population Growth Measures Percent Rate of Change (crude birth rate – crude death rate) x 100 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The number of offspring born to the average woman during her lifetime. Net Reproductive Rate (Ro) The number of female offspring born to the average woman during her lifetime that live to reproduce. R0 = f(ASFR, ASDR)