Experimental Probability 11-2 Experimental Probability Course 2 Warm Up Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Warm Up 1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble? Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain. 2. Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%. Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting? blue certain

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Problem of the Day The probability of Liana making a free throw was 2 3 . If she made 24 of her free throws, how many did she miss? 12

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Learn to find experimental probability.

Insert Lesson Title Here Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Vocabulary experimental probability

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY number of times an event occurs probability  total number of trials

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Additional Example 1: Sports Application During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump? P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials number of jumps landed number of jumps attempted P(jumps landed)  7 12 = Substitute data from the experiment. The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is . 7 12

Experimental Probability Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability “P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).” Writing Math

Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Check It Out: Example 1 During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt? P(event)  number of times an event occurs total number of trials P(free throws made)  number of free throws made number of free throws attempted 9 10 = = 90% Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent. The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is or 90%. 9 10

Additional Example 2A: Application Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Additional Example 2A: Application Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction. What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction? number of fiction books checked out total number of books checked out P(fiction)  32 55  Substitute data. The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately 32 55 .

Additional Example 2B: Application Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Additional Example 2B: Application What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction? number of nonfiction books checked out total number of books checked out P(nonfiction)  23 55  Substitute data. The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction is approximately 23 55 .

Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Check It Out: Example 2A Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears. What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear? P(pear)  number of pears selected total number of fruit selected 18 47  Substitute data. The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately 18 47 .

Insert Lesson Title Here Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Check It Out: Example 2B What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple? P(apple)  number of apples selected total number of fruit selected 29 47  Substitute data. The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is approximately 29 47 .

Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Course 2 11-2 Experimental Probability Insert Lesson Title Here Lesson Quiz 1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that he will make the next shot? 2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton. A. What is the experimental probability that it will rain this year on July 4? B. What is the experimental probability that it will not rain this year? 4 9 1 5 4 5