WRAP Technical Planning Meeting Salt Lake City, UT December 5, 2018 Task 2: Emissions Inventory Development Issues Encountered During 2014 Inventory Development Emissions Inventory & Modeling Protocol Subcommittee WRAP Technical Planning Meeting Salt Lake City, UT December 5, 2018

Emissions Inventory Review Checklist Point Oil & Gas EGU Other Point (non-IPM) Minors / Non-Majors Non-Point Area Fugitive Dust Agricultural Livestock Waste and Fertilizer Application Agricultural Burning CMV Onshore and Offshore Rail Residential Wood Combustion All Other On-Road Mobile Activity data (VMT, VPOP, SPEED) Non-Road Mobile Biogenic Land Use Emission Factors Modeling Methodology NEI: BEIS; Modelers: MEGAN Fire Events Wildfire Prescribed Burning Reviewed Not Reviewed by EI Subcommittee

Emissions Inventory Review Checklist (cont.) Ancillary / Support Modeling Files Temporal Profiles (and Holidays file) Chemical Speciation (CB05 or CB06) Spatial Surrogates Stack Parameter Lookups Reference Counties (for On-Road MOVES) Area to Point (e.g. Airport Operations) Other Review Notes Pollutants CAPs NOx, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, VOCs, CO, HAPs / Toxics Reviewed Not Reviewed by EI Subcommittee

Base Year Selection 2014 NEI v2 Complete with State Input 2016 Modeling Platform Still in development Relies on Growth Factors for nonpoint Little State Input

Methodology Differences Across Borders EPA estimates all emissions categories using one methodology (~ NEI v1) States provide emissions estimates based on better local knowledge or more refined method (~ NEI v2) Potentially different model or calculation method Could use different emission factors, assumptions, activity data, or granular detail (e.g. county vs state-wide factors) Large Differences: Unpaved Road Dust On-Road California wholesale replacement Fire

Methodology Differences Across Borders (cont.) MOVES input data submitted (dark)

Methodology Differences Across Borders (cont.) Percentage of Emissions in 2014 NEIv2 that was submitted by State or Local agency Point Sources Nonpoint Sources   NH3 NOX PM10 PM2.5 SO2 Alaska 99 94 89 25 92 9 4 Arizona 84 90 77 59 97 2 16 1 7 37 Maricopa County 15 83 53 CARB 72 86 85 51 76 55 70 Colorado 95 98 66 3 Hawaii 100 87 91 Idaho 29 33 75 34 49 57 65 Montana Nevada Clark County 73 5 43 78 Washoe County 18 12 17 New Mexico City of Albuquerque 74 54 35 79 27 82 North Dakota Oregon 30 11 60 South Dakota 64 Utah 96 26 22 19 Washington 88 93 Wyoming

Other Complications Different Reporting Thresholds for Point Sources States may include some, all, or no minor sources Missing Stack Parameters for Point Sources Point Source Representativeness 5-yr average? New Sources Typical Year of Facility Activity? Potential problems with EPA MOVES input data (e.g. fleet age distribution) “Sector Summaries” from EPA not based on NAICS code A point source may be broken into multiple “sectors” Augmenting / Regenerating model-ready files State Minors Submitted to EPA? Alaska Yes (see updates on wiki) Arizona Pima County says No – AZDEQ: No California Yes - All minors submitted for NEI years Colorado Yes - All sources down to 1 ton Hawaii No Idaho Montana Yes – Sources down to 25 tons except portables Nevada New Mexico North Dakota Oregon   South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming

Complications for Future Year Modeling How to represent fire events for future years? Point source growth factors to be applied to “representative” year? What else do we want on this list? International Emissions – Do we use EPRI’s numbers?