Laurence Rouïl (INERIS) on behalf of the CAMS_71 team An overview of the CAMS policy services Laurence Rouïl (INERIS) on behalf of the CAMS_71 team

Policy support services General objectives Copernicus Atmosphere services (CAMS) aim at developing a large number of products describing global atmospheric composition and air quality in Europe : forecasts, analyses and re-analyses CAMS SERVICE CHAIN Space Agencies In-situ observations National scale > 30 providers from 14 Member States Policy support services 15

What is available? CAMS PORTFOLIO The CAMS portfolio is composed of 13 “product groups”, organised into 4 categories. The portfolio is available as a standalone PDF document, which is constituted of a collection of “product data sheets”, which gather “all” essential information. There has been no unforeseen changes or extensions compared to the Delegation Agreement. CAMS delivers the portfolio of products outlined in the Delegation Agreement

CAMS PORTFOLIO: REGIONAL PRODUCTS Some users aqicn.org (International) SafeAdviser (Latvia) CAMS regional products category covers comprehensively needs regarding background air quality in Europe. A prominent operational user of CAMS is aqicn website, a global provider of air quality information (not only regional products). SafeAdviser is an innovative smartphone app developed in Latvia an using air quality (among other information) to inform about travel destination. For regulatory pollutants (O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10…) and other key species: Real-time analyses and forecasts (4-day) Interim reanalyses (shortly after the end of each year) Reanalyses based on validated observations (when the e-reporting AQ database is updated) …

CAMS PORTFOLIO: GLOBAL PRODUCTS Some users Plume Labs (France) BoM/MetEye (Australia) The global products offering is quite unique and very well respected worldwide. Examples of users are plumelabs, a French SME, providing air quality information in Europe and in the world and also selling measurement devices. You’ve heard already about the Cancer Council in Australia but the Bureau of Meteorology also serves CAMS UV information and this is really essential at this time of the year in Australia (see area with UV index above 11). Main atmospheric gases and aerosols, stratospheric ozone and UV radiation: Real-time analyses and forecasts (5-day, twice daily) Global Reanalyses 2003-present (every few years) Dust and sea salts forecasts

Policy support :INTERIM ANNUAL ASSEMENT REPORT What is the IAAR? A timely CAMS interim annual assessment report based on UTD AQ data reported by the member States Appears every year in summer and targets the previous year Based on best available modelling strategies developed in CAMS to map air pollutant concentrations in a robust and accurate way: an ensemble of 7 models and data assimilation chains is run Why is the IAAR relevant? Identifies a series of main pollution episodes across Europe likely to impact air pollution levels in the Member States Provides some insights to interpret those episodes: influence of various activity sectors, natural contributions Supports Member States under e-reporting reporting obligations to EU with preliminary analysis of the status of background air pollution level in their territories A good example of this dialogue are the Interim Annual Assessment Reports, which meet a specific need of European Member States in support of their reporting duties. In order to provide the product early enough for this process, we are basing the regional reanalysis on surface observations in an “interim” stage of validation.

2016 IAAR content

2016 IAAR content(ii) Agri. Indus. Traffic Res. Example : PM2.5 concentration in March 2016

ANNUAL ASSESSment Reports (AAR) Annual Assessment Report (AAR) available in fall Y+2 for year Y Use of validated data reported by the Member States to the EEA Policy relevant air quality indicators (according to the Directives or health impacts) Based on Ensemble re-analyses produced by 7 chemistry transport models (uncertainty analysis) Complement the Air quality report published every year by the EEA Focused on background air pollution patterns 2015 Annual assessment report expected in November 2017

The green scenario toolbox Up to 3 days forecasts of « what if » sectoral emission reduction scenarios Sectoral activity sectors are considered + NEC scenarios (2020-2030) Allows to evaluate the impact of main air pollution drivers for various types of situations and the impact of up-coming legislation 10 scenarios currently available

The green scenario toolbox: service evolution Prototype available by the beginning of 2018

Regional source allocation services Pilot experiment in 2018

Scientific framework Products and services based on CHIMERE (F), EMEP(N) and LOTOS-EUROS (NL) chemistry-transport models developed for more than 15 years and extensively evaluated against observations (included in forecast mode) Focus on background concentrations : local situations and hot spots are out of scope Evaluation of the products must be developed (models intercomparison, observation datasets …) and uncertainties better quantified. Linkages will develop with the FAIRMODE activities Support for decision making : short term planning, episode interpretation and analysis.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Next policy users workshop hosted by the EEA : 1st December 2017, Copenhagen Need for information and assistance or suggestions : laurence.rouil@ineris.fr THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !