Advocis Ottawa Variety Day *.

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Presentation transcript:

Advocis Ottawa Variety Day *

Senate House of Commons City TV Documentary Major Canadian newspapers MP's, MPP's, City Councils CBC, CTV *

Current update on the pension crisis *

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California deficit has soared to $16 billion - Governor Jerry Brown *

Duncan fighting five-front battle in bid to slay Ontario deficit $15 Billion *

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Pensions a problem in Ontario? Pension debt overwhelms bankrupt San Bernardino Gold-plated pensions under fire Guelph Mercury *

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Canada’s Debt: $1.4 Trillion $40,000 per person for the debt $9,000 per person for public sector pension shortfall $ Billion Federal Debt $ 650.1 Provinces $ 477.5 Pension Debt $ 300.0 Ontario $ 235.6 *

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How do Debt Bubbles End? Default on Debt Inflation Currency Devaluation John Mauldin – The End Game Taxation *

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco DEMOGRAPHICS Real stock prices follow a downward trend until 2021, cumulatively declining about 13% relative to 2010. The subsequent recovery is quite slow. Indeed, real stock prices are not expected to return to their 2010 level until 2027 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco *

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Three Bubbles The Tech Bubble The Housing Bubble The Debt Bubble Central banks buying stocks? *

RCMP Pensions Assets *

Global Debt Problem $ 45,670,256,678,345 World’s Public Debt - 2005 Where would you invest? $ 45,670,256,678,345 World’s Public Debt - 2005 -Economist Magazine *

POLICE PENSIONS The City contribution to the police pension plan... $26 million in 2013, for a total of $130 million over the next five years.... Equal to a 5.65% property tax increase each year for the next 5 years, equating to a 28% accumulated property tax increase. City of Winnipeg February 19, 2013 Montreal paid $130 million to cover its pension payments. By 2012 the number had more than quadrupled to $609 million D’Amours pension report - Quebec *

A SUSTAINABLE PENSION SYSTEM THAT IS FAIR TO ALL CANADIANS Mission Statement: A SUSTAINABLE PENSION SYSTEM THAT IS FAIR TO ALL CANADIANS OAS – CPP - Public Sector RRSP - PRPP *

Disclaimer We Love Public Sector Employees Teachers Police, Firefighters Military Public Works Librarians, etc. We just can’t afford to pay them what they have negotiated *

Why are pensions a problem? The unfunded shortfall for public pension plans across the country likely exceeds $300 billion. Every man, woman and child in Canada on the hook for more than $9,000 to pay for the unfunded liabilities of public sector employee pension plans. CFIB Report – May 2012 *

Where is your tax money going? California’s New Taxes Are Paying for Pensions California State Teachers’ Retirement System requires an extra $4.5 billion a year for 30 years -- $135 billion Mar 27, Bloomberg News As B.C. bids farewell to HST, P.E.I. says hello P.E.I. officially brings in the 14 per cent tax... biggest tax increase in history, expected to raise $25 Million a year. *

Defined Benefit Pensions Ontario private sector workers with ongoing DB coverage has dwindled to 8.9%, fewer than 1 in 11! Fred Vettese - Benefits Canada *

“There is no defined benefits plan ever conceived that you would draw from much longer than you paid in. It mathematically doesn’t work.” “As the signs came in that the assumptions were wrong, the changes weren’t made” OTPP CEO Jim Leech, April, 2012 *

“Changes Weren’t Made... *

Life Expectancy Canada at Birth 81.1 Male 78.8 Female 83.3 Canada at Age 65 85.2 Male 83.3 Female 86.6 1979 – 74.9 *

What is a fair pension? Is it the replacement of current income? Is it a secure income that will allow you to live in dignity? Is it 70% or is it 45%? CPP replaces 25% *

Municipalities on the hook for shortfalls 2008 deficit $ 279 million 2012 deficit $ 10 billion Contribution rates: 5.5% (1966) 15.9% (2012) *

OMERS SHORTFALLS *

OMERS 2006 - Report to members Lifetime income $960,000 $75,000 Survivor Pension $450,000 Lifetime Pension aged 65-84 $155,000 Lifetime Bridge Benefit Total Contribution $50,000 $280,000 Inflation Protection @ 2.5% *

Crown Corporations CHMC solvency bailout of $126.6 million Feds give $99 M bailout of the Via Rail CHMC solvency bailout of $126.6 million Canada Post - 2010 $4.2 B to $7.0 B in 2012 Bank of Canada special payments $54M in last two years for 2,700 plan members (tax free) *

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RRSP's VS. PS pensions Public Sector Plans $ 840 Billion 2011 contributions $ 30.6 Billion RRSP's $ 842 Billion 2011 contributions $ 33.8 Billion Public sector as % of workforce 16% *

Solutions ??? *