Ireland in 2040: Managing change over a generation Our Public Service 2020 and implementation of the NPF Dr. Seán Ó'Riordáin and Ms. Ruth Minogue

Public Management Reform in Ireland Critics might suggest... Many features remain embedded upon 19th century configurations...Education, local government, policing and justice Rural driven policy or a lack of? On-going management re-configuration but limited structural change Highly disaggregated with limited co-governance and interface between thematic policy and spatial development Under developed systems of accountability based upon policy outcome transparency Concealed Administration

Public Management Reform in Ireland: OECD Review Focus on the outcomes of public service reform Embed an evidence and data-driven approach linking expenditure and reform Strengthen governance arrangements to widen ownership of the reform framework and better define the roles of the centre and the sectors in achieving reform Drive public service innovation

The Opportunities Above average performance of the public service a critical strength

A relatively low cost factor in the overall economy

 A Little Background  Population 1841: 6.5 million 1961: 2.6 million 1996: 3.6 million 2016: 4.7 million (CSO forecasted for 2031 in July 1999) 2026: c5.2-5.35+million 2036: c5.65-6+million 2040: 5.83-6.3million Overall Employment 1996 1.33 million 2016 2.2 million 2040 2.9 million

Population by country of birth Country of birth Number 1946 % 1996 % 2016 % Ireland 96.7 93.0 82.3 United Kingdom 2.8 5.3 5.9 Rest of the EU 0.1 0.5 6.3 USA 0.3 0.4 0.6 Rest of the World 0.1 0.8 4.9

The Public Service-Past and present Public Service Employment 1999 2017 Increase/decrease Population 3.755m 4.76 m +1M (27%) Civil Service           31,562       38,483 +6,921 (22%) Defence    12,610          9,604 -3,006 (-24%) Education 64,415    103,274 +38,859 (60%) Health    69,726     109,338 +39,612 (57%) Justice 11,931      13,793 +1,862 (16%) Local Gov 26,900        27,406 +506 (2%) State Bodies          9,163        12,989 +3,826 (42%)

The Public Service-Future? Public Service Employment 2017 2027? 2040? Population 4.76 m 5.25 m 6.3 m Civil Service           38,483 +3,850 +12,300 Defence    9,604 +960 +3,100 Education 103,274 +10,350 +33,000 Health    109,338 +10,950 +35,000 Justice  13,793 +1,400 +4,400 Local Gov    27,406 +2,750 +8,800 State Bodies           12,989 +1,300 +4,200 Total 314,887 +31,560 +100,800 Plus 4,600 public servants a year….not including replacements…budgeted over 5,000 net in 2019

But what about retirements… Ageing Population up 1 million by 2040 Almost 73% of the Civil Service are 40 years of age or over

 Across all sectors….   In the order of 25,000 civil servants to retire by 2040 The number of retirements are expected to grow from approximately 1,750 in 2019 to a peak of 2,525 in 2025, and gradually fall thereafter to approximately 2,220 in 2028. The average age of a person working in Local Authorities in Ireland is 51. (PWC 2015) Approx 33% of local government staff to retire by 2025 i.e. over 9,000 21% of HSE staff (14,000) are over 55 years, with an average age of 44.6 years

And political representation….? 2016 2040 President 1 1 Councillors 949 1263 TDs 158 210 Senators 60 60

Ireland in the coming times Planning for the 4th Industrial Revolution, the internet of things and the advancing of 3D Printing, etc. Ageing, fully engaged, society? Artificial intelligence, robotics and the interface between the two in a public service environment Skills, new or renewed? So a new public service… To include the capacity to solve complex problems, people management, human factors and the interface with technology, sustaining quality services that are people centred, creativity and active listening

On-going Challenges for the Public Service Population spread across the island of Ireland? Cross border corridor development in light of a Brexit? Civic engagement and participation Adequate/uneven evidence base Understanding intangible features of identity into a rigorous policy framework Integration of spatial planning with the management of the environment in a growing economy Competing demands of an urbanised state and rural development Need for tools to allow for proper policy development

Public Administration: The Proposed Response Through NPF/NDP and the Public Service Reform Framework the focus is on: Having both rural and urban competences but now recognition of the need for gateway/metropolitan institutional settings underpinned by 21st century structures Building of an informed debate on how the public service is organised Increased socio-economic analysis in institutional reform Citizen centred service delivery Performance and management Leadership and transition Moving to a more outcomes-driven focus to ensure results for the public; Increasing collaboration across the public service Developing a more evidence-driven and responsive approach. But is this enough?

 So …. Clearly a major challenge to align the growth of the population and the related changing demographic characteristics to delivery of the National Planning Framework/National Development Plan This means a clear view on the transition of our public services from a focus on austerity and cut backs to one which is about delivery of the capacity and resources to meet the demands of a growing urbanized population Change and reform of the Public Service is critical if Ireland is to take advantage of better educated, experienced and growing diverse population alongside 4th Industrial developments

 Therefore….? Not only should spending be coordinated with spatial planning as in the NPF and NDP but crucially… Public Service Reform needs to be coordinated with NPF and NDP over the extent of both Need for tools to allow for proper policy development

A Mad Thought….it could be more challenging… 1849: c3.1 million in the Netherlands 2016: c17 million …..so would Ireland have c35 million?