Climate Execution Focus Area: Weather & Climate Extremes Tom Karl Director, National Climatic Data Center July 30-31, 2012 Washington D.C. July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Outline Scope of the challenge Goal and outcomes Accomplishments to date Moving forward: NOAA’s multi-line approach Key scientific and technical issues Questions and issues for input from the CWG 06/06/2012

Weather and Climate Extremes Scope of the Challenge Disasters Rising Demand for Information Changes in weather and climate extremes have profound impacts Compelling scientific evidence shows that the nature of extreme events is altered by climate variations and change. Decision makers are demanding improved information on how changes in climate may influence future extremes Tornadoes Wildfires Floods Droughts Heat waves Snowstorms/ Blizzards Geophysical Hurricanes & Tropical Storms July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Weather and Climate Extremes Overview: Goal and Outcome Provide the best available information to help the public, resource managers, and policy makers anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changes in weather and climate extremes and their impacts. Overall Outcome Development and delivery of information to prepare for and adapt to changes in weather and climate extremes—including changes in frequency, intensity, seasonality, and geographical distribution—on an ongoing basis. Last Updated: 5/8/2012

Multi-Line Execution Model: Weather and Climate Extremes AA Climate Goal Board (Chaired by Goal Champion) Interim Executive Working Group members Director, National Climatic Data Center (NESDIS) Director, Climate Program Office (OAR) Director, Climate Prediction Center (NWS) Director, Physical Science Division (OAR) Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (OAR) Director, Storm Prediction Center (NWS) Director, Climate, Weather and Water Services (NWS) Advisors Internal and external advisors invited as needed Executive Working Group Project Lead NESDIS: LO Sponsor for Interim Project Lead Last Updated: 7/19/2012

Relevant Background: Weather and Climate Extremes OMB/OSTP FY14 Priorities Memo focus on: Extremes thresholds & tipping points Detection and attribution Understanding human/natural interactions Prediction/projection Adaptation National Academies and Private Sector collaboration on the North American Risk Model OMB Priorities Memo text: “Particular emphasis should be given to research that advances understanding of vulnerabilities in human and biogeophysical systems and their relationships to climate extremes, thresholds, and tipping points.” 06/06/2012

Key Accomplishments: Data and Information Products Delivery of data and information products, such as: U.S. Hazards outlooks for temperature, precipitation, wind, soil, and wildfire based on extended range and seasonal forecasts. Hurricane seasonal outlooks and experimental projections of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency Billion dollar disasters and the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which quantifies observed changes and tendencies in climate extremes within the contiguous United States Potential maximum precipitation climatologies used for state and municipality water run-off design standards Annual delivery of the State of the Climate report for BAMS Series of BAMS papers on extremes (75 plus experts) July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

Status of Present Knowledge: Economic Impacts U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: 1980 – 2011 Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Drought and Heat Wave Flooding Severe Local Storms and Tornadoes Winter Storm and Crop Freezes Wildfires

Key Accomplishments: Advancing Attribution Science Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective Event Human Influence? Thailand Floods No East Africa Droughts Yes Texas Heat Wave/Drought European Temperatures Central England Warm Nov, Cold Dec UK Cold Winter ©iStockPhoto.com/phototrav Thailand Floods

Status of Present Knowledge: Identifying Science Challenges Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge - Kunkel, K.E. et al. (23 others). (BAMS, in press). Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge - Peterson, T.C. et al. (27 others). Submitted (BAMS). Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts: State of Knowledge - Vose, R.S. et al. (25 others) Submitted (BAMS).

Status of Present Knowledge: Communicating Products What was the impact of the extreme event? What was the cause of the extreme event? What information is needed for preparedness? Will these events be more frequent or stronger? ATMOSPHERE/OCEAN SCIENTISTS Timescales not necessarily relevant. Cacophony of timescales Not necessarily responsive to specific event Focus: Understanding a potential class of extreme events (hurricanes, drought, etc.) ATTRIBUTION SCIENTISTS Focus: Related to the attribution of changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events (Time) Does not address the cause Work on their timescales (Time) Papers Published Papers Published DETECTION SCIENTISTS SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENTS SCIENTISTS Focus: Detection of changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events Focus: Assessment of all extreme events Responsive to a portion of the issue (Time) Without context: uncertainty  credibility  (Time) Papers Published Papers Published IMPACT SCIENTISTS Climate Modeling Scientists Focus: Evaluating the economic, social & biological impacts of extreme events Focus: Predictions & Projections Make scale with 5 paper (Time) (Time) Papers Published Forecasts & Projections

For Discussion with the SAB Climate Working Group How best to prioritize scientific challenges going forward?? Detection: How are extremes changing? Physical Science Basis: Why are extremes changing? Predictions & Projections: What extremes can we expect in the future? Interpret/Communicate: What are the impacts of changes in extremes? Outcome: Development and delivery of information to prepare for and adapt to weather and climate extremes Existing Points of Engagement with Users - NIDIS, RCSDs, RISAs, CSC, CSD, CPC, Weather Forecast Offices, Etc… Climate observations/models critical. Communication and user engagement are involved in each area. Last Updated: 5/8/2012

Key Issues for Discussion Does the CWG have input on what the key research/operational/communication challenges are for the future of weather and climate extremes in a changing climate? How best can the CWG help with priorities for: Detection --- Feedback to observing and data management Attribution --- Event & comprehensive analysis; Timeliness Prediction/Projection ---Varying time scales and skills Impacts --- Economic; Ecosystem services; Human Communications --- Messaging; Tools; Uncertainty 06/06/2012