Climate Change, Health, & Equity Michele Shimomura Denver’s nationally- accredited public health department

How Does Climate Change Affect Health? Heat Stress Infectious Disease Air Pollution Waterborne Disease Health

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted 1951 -- 1980 Cooler than average Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean Average Warmer than average 1951 – 1980 Frequency of Occurrence ID #3624 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. DESCRIPTION: Graph of the frequency of cool, average and warm summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, 1951-1980. The horizontal axis is in units of local standard deviation. ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: Dr. James Hansen and his colleagues examined the frequency of different categories of summer temperatures.* This series of graphs show the shift over time towards warmer than average conditions.** REFERENCES: * James Hansen et al., “Perception of climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (August 6, 2012). http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.full.pdf ** Columbia University, “Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice,” last updated January 2017. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/PerceptionsAndDice/ -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Deviation from Mean Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012 – Updated 2016

Summer Temperatures Have Shifted 2005 – 2015 Cooler than average Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean Average The “extreme” temperature events used to cover 0.1% of the Earth. Now they cover 14.5%. Warmer than average Extremely hot Frequency of Occurrence ID #3627 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. DESCRIPTION: Graph of the frequency of cool, average and warm summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, 2005-2015 (compared to a 1951-1980 base period). The horizontal axis is in units of local standard deviation. ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: In just the past three decades, hot summers have become much more frequent and cold summers much less frequent. If we keep polluting at normal rates, the “extreme” temperatures we’re experiencing now will very likely become the norm over the next 50 years and the hottest temperatures more common.* REFERENCES:  * James Hansen et al., “Perception of climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (August 6, 2012). http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.full.pdf -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Deviation from Mean Source: NASA/GISS; Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 10.1073, August 2012 – Updated 2016

Heat related mortality likely to double by 2050, with low-income and vulnerable most at risk Address impacts to public safety, emergency response, and healthcare.

Hotter temperatures mean more air pollution Source: Climate Central

Projected health impact in 2025 of smog/ozone Source: Gasping for Breath report by Clean Air Task Force with CSU researchers

50% of Denver homes do not have air conditioning

Access to Health is not Equal

Extreme Heat Vulnerabilities Extreme Heat Vulnerability Index https://arcg.is/08jveK Value Added Data Data to use and build a common understanding.

Extreme Heat Vulnerability Index Built Environment Impervious surfaces ~urban heat build up Tree Canopy Demographic/Socioeconomic Vehicle access Linguistic isolation Race Age Educational attainment Household isolation Poverty

Extreme Heat Vulnerability Index (cont.) Health Cognitive disabilities Cognitive disabilities among the elderly Ambulatory disabilities Prevalence of diabetes

Vulnerability Index

Collaborate with other agencies: Changing the Context Where we live, eat, work, play, study, pray Social-economic Factors Poverty Education Age Race/Ethnicity Individual Behaviors Physical Activity Healthy Eating Tobacco Mobility Food Access Parks Housing Safety –Vision Zero, safe places Environmental Quality Community Health

Equity in All Policies The goal is for the tool to provide a framework for collective action to target resources for the most at risk communities. Blueprint Denver Game Plan Denver Denver Pedestrian and Trail Plan Neighborhood Plans (5 yr effort) Denver Transit Plan

Inserting Climate Change into Programs

Community Denver Digs Trees Safe Spaces for activity / transportation Solar (GRID Alternatives) Westwood Transportation Alternatives Community Activation

Thank you! Michele Shimomura Michele.Shimomura@denvergov.org 720-865-5375