Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland John Fitz Gerald The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin www.esri.ie

Introduction National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 ESRI Draft Revisions - September 2001 Models Used Today Parameters Comparison of Projections Responsibilities

Models Used HERMES-Ireland DEMOG - Demographic model Macro-economic model - used Energy sub-model - to be included DEMOG - Demographic model Household numbers - used Energy sub-model - used Methodology is being developed TEAGASC agriculture - developing

Procedure Macro-economic environment Relate it to demographic change Migration and Households Model energy demand Emissions Model cattle numbers

Developing the Model Need to include feedback to macro-economy Energy use reaction to price changes and other policies - elasticities Models of electricity and other sectors Feedback effects on macro-economy Affects prices, wages, competitiveness, GNP Needs integration of energy model into macroeconomic model

Assumptions - Autumn 2001

Birth Rate

Population Structure, 2001

Relative GNP

Cars per person aged 15-64

Model Publication HERMES - various journals ESRI Medium-Term Review: Macro-economic forecasts Energy Sub-Model ESRI Working Paper National Climate Change Strategy, 2000

Policies and Measures ESRI Without Measures - unchanged policies Includes expanded deployment of wind Agenda 2000 reform of agriculture Looking at quantifying policy measures, e.g. Fuel substitution in electricity Taxes and tradable permits Quantification - needs model development

Comparison of Forecasts National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 ESRI - 2001(ESRI) EU Sectoral Objectives - 2002 (EU) Some problems on definitions Ignoring sinks

Source of all GHG Emissions Source: Environmental Protection Agency

Greenhouse Gas Projections

Comparison of Forecasts No change in policy, Comparison with 1990, %

Responsibilities Department of the Environment (DOELG) Expertise: Official energy balances / projections Department of Public Enterprise Official GHG projections & IPCC methodology the Environmental Protection Agency Socio-economic / energy projections Assisted by the ESRI Expertise: ESRI - CO2 from Combustion