Concrete Pavement Analyst 1 ADTT / 2.25 SN $36.90 $33.12 $30.69 $30.78 B – III – a. During the preparation of Concrete Pavement Analyst Version 3, we surveyed the industry to identify accurate values for labor and materials and accepted the average of those costs as the new default values for the program. Using those default values, this graph shows the current trend of the shifting market for a 100,000 sq ft parking lot designed for standard light duty (Average Daily Truck Traffic of 1 – typical parking lot for cars & light trucks. Similar to what you might find at an retail or light commercial property). All four pavement examples are of comparable design (structural coefficient of 2.25, based on moderate soil support (k = 100), ADTT = 1, and Traffic Category A per ACI 330. The concrete pavement (far left) is 4.5” thick and has an in-place cost of $30.69 per sq yd. the full depth asphalt pavement, per design recommendations of the Asphalt Institute, is 1.5” of wear course over 5.25” of bituminous base course, and has an in-place cost of $36.90 per sq yd. The third column represents a locally specified asphalt design of 3” of asphalt wear course over a 9.5” aggregate base (agg base thickness determined using structural layer coefficients) and has an in-place cost of $30.78 per sq yd. The far right column also represents a locally specified asphalt design, utilizing 1.5” of asphalt wear course over a 3” bituminous base and a 6” aggregate base. In-place cost for this pavement is $33.12 per sq yd.

Project A 750,000 ft2 / 600 ADTT / 4.0 SN $43.92 $33.93 This recent comparison is from a 750,000 sq ft parking lot for a warehouse/distribution center. ADTT of 600, requiring a S/N 0f 4.0. Asphalt design was 1.5” wear course over 8” bituminous base over 8” aggregate base. Comparable concrete design would be 8” concrete on compacted base

Project B 75,000 ft2 / 50 ADTT / 3.25 SN $36.99 $32.22 This project is a 75,000 sq ft parking lot for a commercial building. ADTT of 50. Locally specified asphalt design was 2.5” wear course over 4” bituminous base and 8” aggregate base (SN 3.25). In-place cost of asphalt $36.99 per sq yd. Concrete equivalent is 6.5” in-place cost $32.22 per sq yd.

Project C 35,000 ft2 / 25 ADTT $34.07 $32.90 $30.08 3.5 SN 3.45 SN This project is a 35,000 sq ft parking lot for a multi-use facility with ADTT of 25. Concrete spec was 6” concrete over 8” aggregate base (SN 3.96) – in-place cost $34.07 per sq yd. Asphalt spec was 1.5” wear course over 6” bituminous base over 8” aggregate base (SN 3.45) remove s – in-place cost $32.90 per sq yd. Comparable design for concrete per ACI 330 would be 6.5” on compacted base.

Shift in Market Trend – Initial Paving & Life-Cycle Costs* Concrete / Asphalt Comparison 2003 – 2008 *Estimated for 100,000 ft2 parking lot Based on the scenario described, initial cost for asphalt will be more than 50% higher than concrete by 2013. The chart shows 20 year life cycle-costs for concrete and asphalt as estimated by Concrete Pavement Analyst software. 2003 and 2008 estimates are based on representative national pricing. 2013 estimates are based on a cost increase scenario beyond 2008 of 5% per year for concrete and 20% for asphalt. The chart shows that concrete in 2008 has a large first-cost benefit in the “apples-to-apples” comparison with the structural equivalent Asphalt Institute recommendations. Under the scenario charted for the next five years, concrete first-cost is much lower than even the structurally inferior “widely specified” asphalt that is commonly placed, with concrete at less than half the 20 year total life-cycle cost. Prices for asphalt increased 17.8 percent in 2005 and 36.5 percent in 2006, according to an Associated General Contractors report. Public officials in some localities are expecting asphalt increases of as much as 40% in 2008.

Shift in Market Trend – Initial Paving & Life-Cycle Costs* Concrete / Asphalt Comparison 2008 – 2013 *Estimated for 100,000 ft2 parking lot 5% annual increase for concrete / 20% annual increase for asphalt Based on the scenario described, initial cost for asphalt will be more than 50% higher than concrete by 2013. The chart shows 20 year life cycle-costs for concrete and asphalt as estimated by Concrete Pavement Analyst software. 2003 and 2008 estimates are based on representative national pricing. 2013 estimates are based on a cost increase scenario beyond 2008 of 5% per year for concrete and 20% for asphalt. The chart shows that concrete in 2008 has a large first-cost benefit in the “apples-to-apples” comparison with the structural equivalent Asphalt Institute recommendations. Under the scenario charted for the next five years, concrete first-cost is much lower than even the structurally inferior “widely specified” asphalt that is commonly placed, with concrete at less than half the 20 year total life-cycle cost. Prices for asphalt increased 17.8 percent in 2005 and 36.5 percent in 2006, according to an Associated General Contractors report. Public officials in some localities are expecting asphalt increases of as much as 40% in 2008.

Annual Potential for Concrete Parking Lots* Concrete potential yearly: 88 M. CY concrete Concrete parking lot market share in 2005: 9.1% (new construction) Concrete parking lot market share in 2006: 9.6% Concrete parking lot market share in 2007: 9.7% (preliminary estimate) *According to Portland Cement Association and Reed Construction Data This slide is pretty self explanatory. PCA has determined that the annual potential for concrete parking lots is 88 million cubic yards of concrete. Based on research from Reed Construction Data, the concrete market share for parking lots – new construction – was 9.1% in 2005. Based on similar research for 2006 and 2007, the concrete industry has seen a slight increase in market share. This may be due in part to the promotion efforts of the industry and the Concrete Parking Industry Work Group.

10% gain in parking areas equals Current market share 9.6% 260,190,000 ft2 4.8 million yd3* 10% gain in parking areas equals 9.98% market share 286,380,000 ft2 5.3 million yd3* *Based on 6” thick concrete pavement Based on data from Reed Construction Data. 9.6% of total market share approximately 260 million sq ft. A 10% increase in parking area sq ft would slightly more than 286 million sq ft (5.3 million cy, an increase of ½ million cy)

10% gain in market share equals Current market share 9.6% 260,190,000 ft2 4.8 million yd3* 10% gain in market share equals 19.6% market share 562,520,000 ft2 10.4 million yd3* *Based on 6” thick concrete pavement Based on Reed Construction Data, a 10% increase in total market share would equal over 562 million sq ft or 10.4 million cy. An increase of 5.6 million cy (a 116% increase)